Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±5.9%
EPS beat rate
25%
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on the storage and transportation of oil and gas. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, which is vital for both domestic and global markets.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, PAGP reported an EPS of $0.41, slightly missing the estimate of $0.42. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.52% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-38.57%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.91%
Analysts are cautious heading into the earnings report, especially given the company's recent performance and missed estimates. Investors are keen to see if PAGP can turn things around this quarter.
Bull case
If PAGP can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in performance and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
On the other hand, continued misses on earnings and revenue could raise concerns about the company's operational efficiency and market position.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
Given the company's recent earnings misses, the EPS figure will be critical in assessing whether PAGP is on a recovery path.
Q2
How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?
Understanding revenue trends will help investors gauge the company's operational performance and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
$1.57
Est. Rev
$23.0B
Impl. Move
±5.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in PAGP's earnings, given the recent volatility in energy prices which could favorably impact margins.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 5.94% move, indicating expectations of significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.
The company's recent operational adjustments may lead to improved efficiency, which has not been factored into current estimates.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is watching closely for signs of recovery after several disappointing quarters, making this earnings report pivotal.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm a positive turnaround and boost investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.30 would raise significant concerns about the company's profitability and operational efficiency.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.94%
Historical Avg
±1.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.9% while PAGP has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
16.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy
Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 16 of 30 faded and 14 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.6%, with a raw directional average of +0.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.04%
of float
Insider
2.77%
of float
Holders
416
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Tortoise Capital Advisors, LLC
11,116,796 sh · $291.4M
5.92%
-5.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If PAGP beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.91% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but cautious commentary follows, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.05%, further eroding investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Energy Income Partners, LLC
9,045,863 sh · $237.1M
4.82%
0.8%
Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
8,930,864 sh · $234.1M
4.76%
-1.5%
Chickasaw Capital Management, LLC
8,630,172 sh · $226.2M
4.60%
-0.5%
Two Sigma Investments, LP
7,199,867 sh · $188.7M
3.83%
0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.