Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.95
EPS est.
$0.48
EPS surprise
+96.70%
1-day move
+0.04%
Pembina Pipeline's strong EPS performance significantly exceeded expectations, which likely contributed to the slight stock increase of 0.04%. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about the company's overall performance and future outlook. Investors may be encouraged by the earnings beat but will need more information to assess long-term prospects.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.95 | $0.64 | +96.70% |
| Revenue | — | $2.1B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas storage and transportation. As a key player in this industry, Pembina plays a crucial role in moving energy resources across North America, which is vital for meeting energy demands and supporting economic growth.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Pembina reported an impressive EPS of $1.43, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.29% the following day.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+59.56%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.25%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Pembina's upcoming earnings, expecting a solid EPS of $0.64 and steady revenue of $2.1 billion. The company has historically beaten EPS estimates, which could influence market sentiment.
Bull case
If Pembina continues its trend of exceeding EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, any significant miss on EPS or revenue could raise concerns about the company's growth prospects and operational challenges, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.64Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Pembina managed costs and revenue.
Revenue
2.1BTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is essential for assessing overall business performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.64?
A strong EPS performance could reinforce investor confidence and support a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What factors contributed to revenue expectations of $2.1 billion?
Understanding the drivers behind revenue will help assess the company's market position and future growth potential.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±22.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating Pembina's ability to leverage recent operational efficiencies, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected EPS performance.
Supporting evidence
Pembina has consistently beaten EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
Key risk
If EPS comes in above $0.70, it could challenge the current consensus and shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is particularly important as it follows a strong Q1, and any deviation from expectations could significantly impact investor sentiment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.1%
Historical Avg
±0.4%
The options market is pricing in a relatively large move for Pembina's stock, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±4.1% while PBA has averaged ±0.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
22.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of -1.4% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
61.07%
of float
Insider
0.04%
of float
Holders
718
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Royal Bank of Canada
45,437,977 sh · $2.1B
7.81%
17.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Pembina beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.19%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 0.76%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Bank of Montreal /CAN/
21,611,518 sh · $993.5M
3.72%
2.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
16,738,025 sh · $769.4M
2.88%
1.2%
ClearBridge Investments, LLC
13,315,671 sh · $612.1M
2.29%
57.7%
CIBC World Market, Inc.
12,961,055 sh · $595.8M
2.23%
5.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 27, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.