Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$6.22
EPS est.
$4.05
EPS surprise
+53.58%
1-day move
+15.39%
PBF Energy Inc. reported strong earnings with an EPS that significantly exceeded expectations, which likely contributed to the stock's 15.39% increase. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may view the EPS beat as a positive sign for the company's profitability moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $6.22 | $5.64 | +53.58% |
| Revenue | — | $9.4B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
PBF Energy Inc. is a company in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a crucial role in supplying refined petroleum products, which are essential for transportation and various industries.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, PBF Energy reported an EPS of $1.65, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.53% the following day.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+138.21%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.71%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about PBF Energy's upcoming earnings, with expectations for strong EPS and revenue figures. However, the volatility in the oil market adds uncertainty.
Bull case
If PBF can capitalize on higher oil prices and improved refining margins, it could exceed EPS estimates and show robust revenue growth.
Bear case
Conversely, if refining margins shrink or operational challenges arise, the company may struggle to meet expectations, leading to a disappointing earnings report.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$5.64EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$9.4BRevenue reflects the total sales and is vital for understanding the company's market position and growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will PBF Energy's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $5.64?
A strong EPS could indicate effective cost management and robust demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Q2
How will revenue compare to the consensus of $9.4 billion?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position in the refining sector.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±13.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the impact of recent refinery upgrades and operational efficiencies that could drive higher margins.
Supporting evidence
PBF's recent performance has shown a strong ability to beat EPS estimates, suggesting potential for continued success.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, which may reflect greater underlying volatility not fully captured in consensus estimates.
Key risk
If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to an EPS well above the expected $5.64.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The debate centers around PBF's ability to maintain profitability amid fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $6.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $5.00 would support the bear case, suggesting significant challenges in the refining business.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±29.88%
Historical Avg
±6.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect substantial volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±29.9% while PBF has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
70.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$18.3M
220,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$18.3M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
90.75%
of float
Insider
13.81%
of float
Holders
583
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
13,312,561 sh · $1.1B
11.23%
11.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If PBF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.19%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 4.04%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$18.3M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $84.13
120,000 sh
$10.1M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $82.00
100,000 sh
$8.2M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
6,125,377 sh · $512.6M
5.17%
13.8%
State Street Corporation
5,514,966 sh · $461.5M
4.65%
3.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
5,410,856 sh · $452.8M
4.56%
9.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
5,130,165 sh · $429.3M
4.33%
17.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.