Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$114.4B

May11Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major Brazilian state-controlled oil and gas company....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial to assess how well Petrobras is adapting to market conditions and demand for energy.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS indicates the company's profitability and is a key measure for investors to gauge financial health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major Brazilian state-controlled oil and gas company. It operates in the energy sector, focusing on exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas, making it a key player in global energy markets.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Petrobras reported a surprising EPS of -$0.06, significantly beating analyst expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, indicating market concerns despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautious about Petrobras's upcoming earnings, given its mixed historical performance and the current volatility in oil prices.

Bull Case

If Petrobras shows strong revenue growth and improved production levels, it could signal a robust recovery and attract more investor interest.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing production numbers or lower-than-expected earnings, it may lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported production levels for Q1-2026?

Production levels are critical for understanding the company's revenue potential and overall performance in a fluctuating oil market.

How does Petrobras plan to manage costs amid volatile oil prices?

Cost management strategies will be essential for maintaining profitability, especially if oil prices remain unstable.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of rising global oil demand on Petrobras's production capabilities this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing an 8.87% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with actual production stability.

Historical performance shows that even with positive surprises, the stock has reacted negatively, suggesting market skepticism.

Insider buying activity, albeit small, could indicate confidence in upcoming results despite broader market concerns.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and lead to a positive reassessment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production levels and cost management strategies, which are crucial in the current energy landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

A production increase of over 5% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decrease of more than 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.87%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (21.4M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (955K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of -1.78%, indicating a cautious market response despite positive results.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of -2.72% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies in response to fluctuating oil prices.
3Insights into global demand trends for oil and gas.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding operational challenges.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

EchoStar Corporation

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major Brazilian state-controlled oil and gas company....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial to assess how well Petrobras is adapting to market conditions and demand for energy.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS indicates the company's profitability and is a key measure for investors to gauge financial health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautious about Petrobras's upcoming earnings, given its mixed historical performance and the current volatility in oil prices.

Bull Case

If Petrobras shows strong revenue growth and improved production levels, it could signal a robust recovery and attract more investor interest.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing production numbers or lower-than-expected earnings, it may lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported production levels for Q1-2026?

Production levels are critical for understanding the company's revenue potential and overall performance in a fluctuating oil market.

How does Petrobras plan to manage costs amid volatile oil prices?

Cost management strategies will be essential for maintaining profitability, especially if oil prices remain unstable.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of rising global oil demand on Petrobras's production capabilities this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing an 8.87% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with actual production stability.

Historical performance shows that even with positive surprises, the stock has reacted negatively, suggesting market skepticism.

Insider buying activity, albeit small, could indicate confidence in upcoming results despite broader market concerns.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and lead to a positive reassessment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production levels and cost management strategies, which are crucial in the current energy landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

A production increase of over 5% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decrease of more than 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.87%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (21.4M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (955K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of -1.78%, indicating a cautious market response despite positive results.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of -2.72% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies in response to fluctuating oil prices.
3Insights into global demand trends for oil and gas.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding operational challenges.