Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$117.5B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2020After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how effectively Petrobras is expanding its operations and capturing market share in the energy sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining. As a state-controlled company in Brazil, it plays a crucial role in the country's energy supply and economic stability.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, outperforming expectations by 80.65%. However, the stock fell 2.05% the following day, reflecting market skepticism despite the surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Petrobras's upcoming earnings, especially after the surprise in the last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates leaves uncertainty in expectations.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved production levels, it could signal a recovery in profitability and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports continued losses, it could lead to further declines in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the current oil production levels and how do they compare to previous quarters?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical metric for investors.

How is Petrobras managing its costs in light of fluctuating oil prices?

Cost management will be crucial for maintaining profitability, especially if oil prices remain volatile.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Petrobras's ability to rebound from recent losses, particularly if production levels improve significantly.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.45% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's recovery potential, which could contradict bearish sentiment.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Petrobras's ability to manage costs and maintain production levels amid market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating positive EPS growth or significant revenue increase would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Reporting continued losses or lower-than-expected production levels would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.82%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may experience limited movement as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of 2.72%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on oil production levels and any changes in operational strategy.
2Insights into cost management strategies in response to oil price fluctuations.
3Any commentary on market demand and how it affects future revenue projections.
4Discussion of geopolitical factors impacting the energy sector and Petrobras's operations.
5Management's outlook on the overall energy market and its implications for Petrobras.

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Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how effectively Petrobras is expanding its operations and capturing market share in the energy sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, outperforming expectations by 80.65%. However, the stock fell 2.05% the following day, reflecting market skepticism despite the surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Petrobras's upcoming earnings, especially after the surprise in the last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates leaves uncertainty in expectations.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved production levels, it could signal a recovery in profitability and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports continued losses, it could lead to further declines in stock value.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the current oil production levels and how do they compare to previous quarters?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical metric for investors.

How is Petrobras managing its costs in light of fluctuating oil prices?

Cost management will be crucial for maintaining profitability, especially if oil prices remain volatile.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Petrobras's ability to rebound from recent losses, particularly if production levels improve significantly.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.45% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's recovery potential, which could contradict bearish sentiment.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Petrobras's ability to manage costs and maintain production levels amid market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating positive EPS growth or significant revenue increase would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Reporting continued losses or lower-than-expected production levels would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.82%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may experience limited movement as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of 2.72%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on oil production levels and any changes in operational strategy.
2Insights into cost management strategies in response to oil price fluctuations.
3Any commentary on market demand and how it affects future revenue projections.
4Discussion of geopolitical factors impacting the energy sector and Petrobras's operations.
5Management's outlook on the overall energy market and its implications for Petrobras.