Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$115.7B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2020After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and distribution....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well Petrobras is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insights into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for oil and gas.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and distribution. As a state-controlled company in Brazil, it plays a crucial role in the country's economy and energy supply, making its performance significant for investors and the market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, significantly beating expectations of -$0.31. However, the stock fell by 2.05% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Petrobras are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding oil prices and production levels. Investors are keenly watching how the company navigates these challenges.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can demonstrate strong oil production and manage costs effectively, it could see a positive reaction from investors, especially if oil prices stabilize or rise.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower production levels or higher costs, it may face significant downward pressure on its stock, reflecting broader concerns about the energy market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the current oil production levels and how do they compare to previous quarters?

Production levels are crucial for revenue generation, and any significant changes could impact investor confidence.

How is Petrobras managing costs in the current volatile oil market?

Cost management will be key to maintaining profitability, especially if oil prices fluctuate.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Petrobras' ability to manage costs effectively in a challenging environment, leading to a potential surprise in profitability.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 6.45% move, but the stock has averaged only 1.82% over the last 8 quarters.

The historical EPS beat rate of 40% suggests that Petrobras has a reasonable chance of exceeding expectations.

Key Risk

If production levels come in significantly above expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on how effectively Petrobras can manage production and costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

A production increase of 5% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decrease of 5% or more would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.82%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results come in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

If Petrobras misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.72%, indicating market disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil production targets and how they compare to last quarter.
2Insights into cost management strategies in light of current oil prices.
3Comments on market demand for oil and gas in the coming months.
4Any guidance on future revenue expectations.
5Management's outlook on geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Danaos Corporation

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and distribution....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well Petrobras is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insights into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for oil and gas.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, significantly beating expectations of -$0.31. However, the stock fell by 2.05% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Petrobras are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding oil prices and production levels. Investors are keenly watching how the company navigates these challenges.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can demonstrate strong oil production and manage costs effectively, it could see a positive reaction from investors, especially if oil prices stabilize or rise.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower production levels or higher costs, it may face significant downward pressure on its stock, reflecting broader concerns about the energy market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the current oil production levels and how do they compare to previous quarters?

Production levels are crucial for revenue generation, and any significant changes could impact investor confidence.

How is Petrobras managing costs in the current volatile oil market?

Cost management will be key to maintaining profitability, especially if oil prices fluctuate.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Petrobras' ability to manage costs effectively in a challenging environment, leading to a potential surprise in profitability.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 6.45% move, but the stock has averaged only 1.82% over the last 8 quarters.

The historical EPS beat rate of 40% suggests that Petrobras has a reasonable chance of exceeding expectations.

Key Risk

If production levels come in significantly above expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on how effectively Petrobras can manage production and costs amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

A production increase of 5% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decrease of 5% or more would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.82%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results come in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

If Petrobras misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.72%, indicating market disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil production targets and how they compare to last quarter.
2Insights into cost management strategies in light of current oil prices.
3Comments on market demand for oil and gas in the coming months.
4Any guidance on future revenue expectations.
5Management's outlook on geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.