Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$117.5B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2020After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Petrobras is managing its costs and revenues in a challenging market.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for oil and gas.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining. As a state-controlled company in Brazil, it plays a crucial role in the country's energy supply and economic stability, especially amid fluctuating global oil prices.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, significantly beating expectations of -$0.31. Despite this positive surprise, the stock fell 2.05% the following day, indicating market skepticism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Petrobras are mixed as investors await clarity on production levels and profitability in a volatile oil market.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can report strong production and better-than-expected EPS, it could signal a recovery in profitability and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet production targets or reports a larger loss than anticipated, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the current oil production levels and how do they compare to previous quarters?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a crucial point for investors.

What is the company's outlook on oil prices and its impact on future earnings?

Understanding management's perspective on oil prices will help gauge future performance and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Petrobras's ability to manage costs effectively in a recovering oil market, leading to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS surprise indicates potential operational improvements.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Insider buying activity could signal confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If production levels fall below expectations, it could undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and the company's ability to navigate fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

A production increase of at least 5% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decrease of more than 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.82%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a decline of approximately 2.72%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil production targets and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and their strategy to mitigate risks.
3Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into market demand for oil and gas in the coming months.
5Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting oil supply.

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Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Petrobras is managing its costs and revenues in a challenging market.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for oil and gas.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, significantly beating expectations of -$0.31. Despite this positive surprise, the stock fell 2.05% the following day, indicating market skepticism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Petrobras are mixed as investors await clarity on production levels and profitability in a volatile oil market.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can report strong production and better-than-expected EPS, it could signal a recovery in profitability and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet production targets or reports a larger loss than anticipated, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the current oil production levels and how do they compare to previous quarters?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a crucial point for investors.

What is the company's outlook on oil prices and its impact on future earnings?

Understanding management's perspective on oil prices will help gauge future performance and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Petrobras's ability to manage costs effectively in a recovering oil market, leading to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

The recent EPS surprise indicates potential operational improvements.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Insider buying activity could signal confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If production levels fall below expectations, it could undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and the company's ability to navigate fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

A production increase of at least 5% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decrease of more than 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.82%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a decline of approximately 2.72%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil production targets and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and their strategy to mitigate risks.
3Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into market demand for oil and gas in the coming months.
5Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting oil supply.