Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$0.69
EPS est.
$0.68
EPS surprise
+1.02%
1-day move
-1.57%
Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (PECO) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on owning and managing grocery-anchored shopping centers. As consumer spending patterns evolve, the performance of retail REITs like PECO is closely tied to the health of the retail sector and consumer confidence.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, PECO reported earnings per share of $0.67, matching analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.09% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.15%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.15%
Overall expectations are cautious as there are no analyst estimates available for the upcoming earnings. Investors will be looking for any signs of growth in occupancy and same-store sales.
Bull case
If PECO can demonstrate strong occupancy rates and positive same-store sales growth, it could signal a robust recovery in the retail sector, leading to stock appreciation.
Bear case
Conversely, if occupancy rates decline or same-store sales growth is weak, it may raise concerns about the company's ability to generate revenue, potentially leading to a drop in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current occupancy rate and how does it compare to last quarter?
Occupancy rates are critical for revenue generation, and any significant change could impact investor sentiment.
Q2
What are the same-store sales growth figures for the quarter?
This metric will provide insight into the health of the retail tenants and overall demand for retail space.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±17.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for PECO to maintain high occupancy rates despite economic pressures, as grocery-anchored centers have shown resilience.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends indicate a shift towards grocery and essential retail, which may benefit PECO's properties.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating heightened expectations.
PECO's previous earnings have shown consistent performance, suggesting stability in its operations.
Key risk
If occupancy rates exceed 95%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on occupancy and sales metrics, which are crucial for the company's revenue outlook.
Bull confirmed if
An occupancy rate above 95% would confirm a strong demand for retail space.
Bear confirmed if
An occupancy rate below 90% would raise concerns about the company's revenue stability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.89%
Historical Avg
±1.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±13.9% while PECO has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
17.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Real Estate
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Real Estate in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.98%
of float
Insider
0.56%
of float
Holders
594
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
23,307,528 sh · $863.5M
18.11%
5.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If PECO beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.17% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
A cautious but in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors assess management's commentary.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.14%, indicating investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
14,398,478 sh · $533.5M
11.19%
3.7%
State Street Corporation
7,290,689 sh · $270.1M
5.66%
2.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,728,291 sh · $212.2M
4.45%
0.6%
FMR, LLC
4,220,531 sh · $156.4M
3.28%
2.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.