Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.49
Est. revenue
$423M
Implied move
±10.8%
EPS beat rate
88%
Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on application software that helps businesses automate processes and improve customer engagement. As companies increasingly adopt digital solutions, Pegasystems' offerings are becoming more relevant in a competitive market driven by AI and cloud technologies.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Pegasystems reported an EPS of $0.35, exceeding expectations by 53.51%. However, the stock declined by 2.37% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+272.05%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.17%
Analysts expect Pegasystems to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.49 and revenue of $423 million. The market is keenly watching for any signs of growth in customer demand.
Bull case
If Pegasystems beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its software solutions, leading to positive investor sentiment.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, especially after a previous earnings miss, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.49Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
423MRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is crucial for long-term success.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Pegasystems achieve an EPS of $0.49 or higher?
This figure is critical as it will determine if the company can maintain investor confidence after recent mixed results.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for this quarter?
Revenue growth is essential for validating the company's market position and future prospects.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±11.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Pegasystems' ability to leverage its existing customer base for upselling, which could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate in the last eight quarters.
Recent insider selling could indicate a strategic shift rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect more volatility than the consensus reflects.
Key risk
If the company reports significantly higher revenue growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely scrutinized following a mixed earnings history, with investors looking for signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.49 or better with revenue exceeding $423 million would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.40 or revenue under $407 million would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.81%
Historical Avg
±3.5%
The options market is pricing in a larger-than-average move, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.8% while PEGA has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
40.0%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$34,150.00
1,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$34,150.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
60.98%
of float
Insider
47.83%
of float
Holders
588
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
9,573,688 sh · $328.9M
5.82%
-0.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Pegasystems beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.28% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential drop of around 10.32%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$34,150.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $34.15
1,000 sh
$34,150.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
6,455,250 sh · $221.7M
3.93%
1.5%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
4,919,642 sh · $169.0M
2.99%
8.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
4,128,720 sh · $141.8M
2.51%
-0.8%
Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
3,031,497 sh · $104.1M
1.84%
27.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.