Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 9, 2026
EPS actual
$2.20
EPS est.
$2.19
EPS surprise
+0.46%
1-day move
-3.26%
PepsiCo's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS expectations, which may have contributed to the stock's decline of 3.26% following the announcement. The lack of revenue figures and management commentary leaves investors with limited insights into the company's performance and future outlook. Overall, the market's reaction indicates some concern over the earnings miss.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.20 | $2.23 | -1.35% |
| Revenue | N/A | $24.0B | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
PepsiCo, Inc. is a global leader in the consumer staples sector, primarily known for its soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages. With a market cap of $192 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the beverage industry, responding to trends in consumer preferences and health consciousness.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, PepsiCo reported an EPS of $1.61, beating estimates by 3.74%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.28% the following day.
EPS beat streak
5Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
-5.89%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.24%
Analysts expect PepsiCo to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.23 and revenue of $24.0 billion. The market is looking for signs of continued growth amidst rising costs.
Bull case
If PepsiCo can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses on EPS or revenue, it may raise concerns about pricing power and consumer demand, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$2.23Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$24.0BTotal revenue provides insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will PepsiCo's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.23?
A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in the company's profitability and growth strategy.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the consensus of $24.0 billion?
Revenue performance will indicate how well PepsiCo is managing consumer demand and pricing amidst inflationary pressures.
—
Est. EPS
$1.07
Est. Rev
$1.5B
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of PepsiCo's cost management strategies, which could lead to better-than-expected margins despite rising costs.
Supporting evidence
PepsiCo has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.
Recent consumer trends show a shift towards healthier beverage options, which PepsiCo is well-positioned to capitalize on.
Key risk
If the company reports revenue below $24.0 billion, it could challenge the optimistic growth narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be critical in determining how well PepsiCo navigates current economic challenges and consumer trends.
Bull confirmed if
EPS exceeding $2.23 and revenue surpassing $24.0 billion would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.23 or revenue below $24.0 billion would raise concerns about pricing power and consumer demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.46%
Historical Avg
±4.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.5% while PEP has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
20.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
81.48%
of float
Insider
0.18%
of float
Holders
4,299
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
118,281,854 sh · $14.6B
8.42%
2.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If PepsiCo beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +1.51%, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await more clarity from management.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a downside move of about +1.28%, raising concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
1 buy·2 sells
Members
3
House only
Est. Notional
$17,003.00–$80,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
89,257,968 sh · $11.0B
6.36%
0.5%
State Street Corporation
60,406,932 sh · $7.5B
4.30%
1.7%
Invesco Ltd.
43,113,398 sh · $5.3B
3.07%
5.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
37,159,425 sh · $4.6B
2.65%
1.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 26, 2026 · disclosed Sep 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 17, 2026 · disclosed Aug 12, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.