Equity Profile

PGR

The Progressive Corporation

FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance$119.0B

Jul15Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

$3.75

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

$21.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PGR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance in the U.S. It is known for its innovative approach to insurance, including its use of technology to enhance customer experience. As a major player in the financial sector, its performance can reflect broader trends in consumer spending and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.33%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Progressive reported an EPS of $4.80, slightly beating estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.36% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Progressive to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $3.75. The stock's recent performance suggests a cautious optimism among investors.

Bull Case

If Progressive beats EPS estimates again, it could signal strong operational efficiency and customer retention, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates, it may raise concerns about profitability and market competition, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$3.75

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

Revenue

$21.2B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $3.75, and by how much?

A strong EPS performance could indicate robust demand and effective cost management, which are critical for investor confidence.

What are the trends in customer retention and new policy sales?

Understanding these trends will help gauge Progressive's competitive position and growth potential in the insurance market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Progressive's ability to maintain strong margins despite competitive pressures, as seen in recent earnings surprises.

Supporting Evidence

Progressive has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than anticipated.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened investor sentiment.

Recent trends in customer retention may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If customer retention rates show significant improvement, it could lead to a positive surprise in EPS.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and customer trends to assess Progressive's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.00 or higher would confirm strong performance and could lead to increased investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.10 would raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.06%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.1% while PGR has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

18.9%

Calls (65K)P/C Ratio: 0.99Puts (104K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$199,038.00

980 sh

1 insider

Net

$199,038.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Progressive beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.36%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 3.14%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$5,005.00–$75,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer retention rates and new policy sales.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into competitive pressures in the insurance market.
4Management's outlook on future growth and market conditions.
5Any changes in claims experience that could affect profitability.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

$3.75

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

$21.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PGR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.33%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Progressive reported an EPS of $4.80, slightly beating estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.36% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Progressive to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $3.75. The stock's recent performance suggests a cautious optimism among investors.

Bull Case

If Progressive beats EPS estimates again, it could signal strong operational efficiency and customer retention, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates, it may raise concerns about profitability and market competition, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$3.75

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

Revenue

$21.2B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $3.75, and by how much?

A strong EPS performance could indicate robust demand and effective cost management, which are critical for investor confidence.

What are the trends in customer retention and new policy sales?

Understanding these trends will help gauge Progressive's competitive position and growth potential in the insurance market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Progressive's ability to maintain strong margins despite competitive pressures, as seen in recent earnings surprises.

Supporting Evidence

Progressive has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than anticipated.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened investor sentiment.

Recent trends in customer retention may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If customer retention rates show significant improvement, it could lead to a positive surprise in EPS.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and customer trends to assess Progressive's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.00 or higher would confirm strong performance and could lead to increased investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.10 would raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.06%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.1% while PGR has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

18.9%

Calls (65K)P/C Ratio: 0.99Puts (104K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$199,038.00

980 sh

1 insider

Net

$199,038.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Progressive beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.36%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 3.14%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$5,005.00–$75,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer retention rates and new policy sales.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into competitive pressures in the insurance market.
4Management's outlook on future growth and market conditions.
5Any changes in claims experience that could affect profitability.