Financials·Property & Casualty Insurance·$117.4B
Progressive Corp OH (PGR) is a leading property and casualty insurance company, primarily known for its auto insurance offerings. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in providing coverage to consumers and businesses, which is especially relevant in today's economic climate where risk management is increasingly important.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.
Revenue
Total revenue indicates the company's ability to generate sales and is essential for assessing growth potential.
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EPS Beat Streak
2Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.16%
Avg Stock Reaction
-0.33%
In Q1-2026, Progressive reported an EPS of $4.80, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.36% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are generally optimistic about Progressive's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance based on recent trends.
Bull Case
If Progressive beats EPS expectations again, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market share growth, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates, it may raise concerns about rising costs or competitive pressures, leading to a negative market reaction.
EPS
$3.75Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.
Revenue
$21.2BTotal revenue indicates the company's ability to generate sales and is essential for assessing growth potential.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed $3.75, and if so, by how much?
A significant beat could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor sentiment.
Q2
What are the key drivers behind revenue expectations of $21.2B?
Understanding revenue sources will help assess the company's growth trajectory and market position.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Progressive's ability to manage costs effectively, given its recent operational improvements.
Supporting Evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger performance than anticipated.
Options pricing indicates a higher expected move, which may reflect investor uncertainty rather than a bearish outlook.
Historical trends show that the stock tends to react positively to earnings beats.
Key Risk
If the EPS comes in below $3.75, it could undermine the positive sentiment and lead to a reassessment of growth prospects.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it could indicate how well Progressive is navigating market pressures and competition.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $4.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $3.10 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about operational challenges.
Implied Move
±14.05%
Historical Avg
±2.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±14.1% while PGR has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Progressive beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction of around +1.36%, confirming strong operational health.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -3.14%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future performance.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP
Jul 14, 2026