Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±13.2%
EPS beat rate
100%
Palantir Technologies Inc. is a software company that specializes in data analytics and artificial intelligence. Operating in the Information Technology sector, it provides tools for organizations to integrate and analyze large amounts of data, which is increasingly important in today's data-driven world.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Palantir reported an EPS of $0.41, significantly exceeding expectations by 48%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.10% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+78.63%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.46%
Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters. However, uncertainty remains regarding revenue growth and customer acquisition.
Bull case
If Palantir continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could reinforce investor confidence and drive the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet growth expectations or shows signs of slowing demand, it could lead to a significant sell-off.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the growth rate of new customer acquisitions this quarter?
This metric will indicate whether Palantir is successfully expanding its market presence, which is critical for future revenue growth.
Q2
How does management view the competitive landscape and its impact on pricing strategy?
Understanding management's perspective on competition will help gauge potential pricing pressures and market share challenges.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±8.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Palantir's ability to capture new customers in emerging markets, which could drive unexpected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
Palantir's recent product innovations may attract new sectors, which the Street hasn't fully accounted for.
The company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates suggests it may continue to outperform expectations.
Options pricing indicates a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate a more volatile outcome than the consensus suggests.
Key risk
If customer growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Palantir can sustain its growth momentum in a competitive environment.
Bull confirmed if
Demonstrating a customer growth rate of over 15% year-over-year would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
If new customer growth falls below 5%, it would signal potential challenges in maintaining market share.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.15%
Historical Avg
±1.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±13.2% while PLTR has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
42.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 14 of 29 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 14 of 29 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of -2.2% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$253,963.15
1,337 sh
1 insider
Net
$253,963.15
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
64.72%
of float
Insider
3.45%
of float
Holders
3,621
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
189,817,693 sh · $36.8B
8.70%
0.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Palantir beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could move up by around 1.46% on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.86%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
6
3 buys·3 sells
Members
3
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$20,006.00–$125,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
4 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$253,963.15
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $189.95
1,337 sh
$253,963.15
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
146,137,514 sh · $28.4B
6.70%
0.9%
State Street Corporation
104,490,468 sh · $20.3B
4.79%
2.8%
Invesco Ltd.
70,438,517 sh · $13.7B
3.23%
2.1%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
55,334,968 sh · $10.7B
2.54%
-1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
1 trade
Net buying
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 17, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 15, 2026 · disclosed Jun 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 15, 2026 · disclosed Jun 16, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 8, 2026 · disclosed Jun 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 6, 2026 · disclosed Aug 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.