Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±25.5%
EPS beat rate
50%
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on application software that leverages quantum computing. As a pioneer in this emerging field, D-Wave's technology aims to solve complex problems faster than traditional computers, which could be crucial as industries increasingly seek advanced computing solutions.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, D-Wave reported an EPS of -$0.13, missing estimates and reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 9.28% the next day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+2.27%
Avg 1-day reaction
+6.30%
Overall, expectations are mixed as D-Wave has struggled with profitability, but there is hope for improvement in customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Bull case
If D-Wave can show strong customer growth and better-than-expected EPS, it could signal a turning point for the company, leading to increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability in a competitive market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current number of new customer contracts signed this quarter?
This metric will help gauge market demand for D-Wave's technology and its competitive positioning.
Q2
How does management plan to address the ongoing losses and improve EPS?
Investors will be looking for concrete strategies to turn around the company's financial performance.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±8.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for D-Wave to secure new customer contracts, particularly in sectors increasingly interested in quantum computing solutions.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 25.45% move, indicating heightened expectations that may not align with historical performance.
The company's recent focus on expanding its customer base could lead to unexpected growth.
Past performance shows that D-Wave has surprised positively in 50% of its recent quarters.
Key risk
If customer acquisition numbers exceed expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether D-Wave can show signs of financial recovery and growth in customer acquisition.
Bull confirmed if
Demonstrating a positive EPS surprise of at least 20% would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than -$0.15 would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±25.45%
Historical Avg
±13.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±25.5% while QBTS has averaged ±13.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
58.0%
Cross-company pattern from 16 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 6 of 16 (38%)
This setup has occurred 16 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 10 of 16 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.4%, with a raw directional average of -2.0% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
54.43%
of float
Insider
2.21%
of float
Holders
702
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
33,147,399 sh · $504.5M
9.04%
9.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If D-Wave beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 13.62%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
A disappointing report could lead to a decline of about 1.02%, reinforcing concerns about the company's profitability.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
22,021,534 sh · $335.2M
6.00%
5.9%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
15,940,671 sh · $242.6M
4.35%
0.6%
UBS Group AG
11,645,700 sh · $177.2M
3.18%
18.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
9,270,389 sh · $141.1M
2.53%
2.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.