Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±11.6%
EPS beat rate
75%
Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance market, it helps lenders manage risk and supports homeownership by providing insurance for mortgage loans. The company's performance is closely tied to housing market trends and interest rates.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Radian reported an EPS of $1.14, falling short of expectations by 17.39%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.19% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.06%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.75%
Investors are cautious ahead of Radian's earnings report, especially after two consecutive earnings misses. The focus will be on whether the company can turn around its performance.
Bull case
If Radian can exceed EPS expectations and show strong mortgage insurance premium growth, it could signal a recovery in its business and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Continued earnings misses or a high loss ratio could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's ability to manage risks effectively.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the EPS for Q3-2026?
A strong EPS could indicate a recovery in profitability, while a weak EPS may raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.
Q2
What is the loss ratio for the quarter?
The loss ratio is crucial for understanding Radian's risk management and could significantly impact investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating Radian's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, particularly if mortgage insurance demand remains strong.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing an 8.73% move, indicating high expectations for volatility that may not materialize.
Radian has a history of beating EPS expectations, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
Key risk
If the loss ratio comes in below 30%, it could significantly shift perceptions about Radian's risk management.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal as Radian seeks to recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate effective risk management.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.40 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.00 would confirm the bear case and raise serious concerns about the company's operational health.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.73%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±11.6% while RDN has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
31.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.1%, with a raw directional average of +0.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
97.57%
of float
Insider
1.66%
of float
Holders
535
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
19,327,643 sh · $651.3M
14.61%
2.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Radian beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.13%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity on future guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.38%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ability to manage risks effectively.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
9,241,527 sh · $311.4M
6.99%
-1.1%
LSV Asset Management
6,392,333 sh · $215.4M
4.83%
3.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
6,070,437 sh · $204.6M
4.59%
2.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,991,073 sh · $201.9M
4.53%
-1.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.