Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±16.6%
EPS beat rate
63%
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a company in the Information Technology sector, specifically in the semiconductor industry. They focus on quantum computing technology, which is increasingly important for advancements in AI and complex problem-solving. With a market cap of $5 billion, their innovations could play a significant role in the future of computing.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Rigetti reported an EPS of -$0.05, beating expectations slightly. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-54.11%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.76%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given Rigetti's history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of revenue guidance adds uncertainty.
Bull case
If Rigetti continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational improvements and investor confidence.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to provide clear revenue growth or guidance, it may raise concerns about its market position and future prospects.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the revenue growth rate for the quarter?
Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to scale and compete in the semiconductor market.
Q2
Will management provide guidance on future earnings or revenue?
Clear guidance can help investors gauge the company's future performance and stability, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±11.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Rigetti to exceed revenue expectations based on recent advancements in quantum computing technology.
Supporting evidence
Rigetti has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could translate to better-than-expected revenue growth.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility and potential surprises.
Key risk
If revenue growth comes in below expectations, it could undermine the positive narrative surrounding the company's future prospects.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely watched to determine if Rigetti can maintain its growth trajectory in a competitive landscape.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue growth rate of over 15% would confirm strong demand for Rigetti's products.
Bear confirmed if
If revenue growth is flat or negative, it would raise serious concerns about the company's market viability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±16.63%
Historical Avg
±4.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±16.6% while RGTI has averaged ±4.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
46.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors
Fade rate: 14 of 29 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 14 of 29 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of -2.4% (modestly negative historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Rigetti beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.78% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential drop of about 2.72%, indicating investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.