Equity Profile

RUN

Sunrun Inc.

IndustrialsElectrical Components & Equipment$2.4B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Sunrun Inc. is a leading provider of residential solar energy solutions in the U.S., focusing on making solar energy affordable and accessible....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how effectively Sunrun is expanding its market share and customer base in the competitive solar industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RUN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Sunrun Inc. is a leading provider of residential solar energy solutions in the U.S., focusing on making solar energy affordable and accessible. As a player in the industrials sector, the company is part of the growing trend toward renewable energy and sustainability, which is increasingly important in today's economy.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+574.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Sunrun reported an impressive earnings surprise, with EPS coming in at $0.62 compared to an estimate of -$0.05. However, the stock experienced a decline of 4.68% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding customer base through innovative financing options.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency to lower costs.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Sunrun has shown strong earnings surprises in recent quarters, but the stock has not consistently reacted positively. Investors will be looking for continued growth and operational improvements.

Bull Case

If Sunrun can demonstrate strong revenue growth and manage customer acquisition costs effectively, it could signal a robust demand for solar solutions, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations on revenue growth or shows increasing costs, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a negative stock reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's history of significant EPS surprises, this will be a key indicator of operational performance and investor confidence.

How is Sunrun managing customer acquisition costs in the current market?

Understanding the efficiency of customer acquisition will provide insights into the company's growth potential and profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Sunrun's ability to manage customer acquisition costs effectively, given its recent operational improvements and strategic focus on efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Sunrun has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility that may not align with consensus expectations.

Key Risk

If customer acquisition costs come in lower than expected, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Sunrun's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Sunrun can sustain its growth trajectory while managing costs effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and growth.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would raise concerns about profitability and market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.13%

Historical Avg

±3.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.1% while RUN has averaged ±3.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

64.9%

Calls (2.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.34Puts (177K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Sunrun beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 3.35% on average, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, as investors await clearer guidance on future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 2.52%, reflecting concerns about the company's ability to compete in a challenging market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on customer acquisition costs and strategies for improvement.
2Any updates on new financing options for customers.
3Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management.
4Guidance on revenue growth expectations for the next quarter.
5Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Sunrun Inc. is a leading provider of residential solar energy solutions in the U.S., focusing on making solar energy affordable and accessible....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how effectively Sunrun is expanding its market share and customer base in the competitive solar industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RUN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+574.34%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.07%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding customer base through innovative financing options.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency to lower costs.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Sunrun can demonstrate strong revenue growth and manage customer acquisition costs effectively, it could signal a robust demand for solar solutions, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations on revenue growth or shows increasing costs, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a negative stock reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's history of significant EPS surprises, this will be a key indicator of operational performance and investor confidence.

How is Sunrun managing customer acquisition costs in the current market?

Understanding the efficiency of customer acquisition will provide insights into the company's growth potential and profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Sunrun's ability to manage customer acquisition costs effectively, given its recent operational improvements and strategic focus on efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Sunrun has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility that may not align with consensus expectations.

Key Risk

If customer acquisition costs come in lower than expected, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Sunrun's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Sunrun can sustain its growth trajectory while managing costs effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and growth.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would raise concerns about profitability and market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.13%

Historical Avg

±3.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.1% while RUN has averaged ±3.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

64.9%

Calls (2.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.34Puts (177K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Sunrun beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 3.35% on average, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, as investors await clearer guidance on future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 2.52%, reflecting concerns about the company's ability to compete in a challenging market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on customer acquisition costs and strategies for improvement.
2Any updates on new financing options for customers.
3Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management.
4Guidance on revenue growth expectations for the next quarter.
5Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.