Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Est. EPS
$1.94
Est. revenue
$4.4B
Implied move
±7.4%
EPS beat rate
88%
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is a major player in the copper industry, focusing on the mining, smelting, and refining of copper. As a significant supplier of copper, the company is influenced by global demand for the metal, which is crucial for various sectors including construction and electronics.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Southern Copper reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.01, beating expectations by 2.03%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 7.39% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.48%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.58%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the Q3 earnings report, given the company's strong track record of beating earnings estimates. However, concerns about copper price volatility and production costs linger.
Bull case
If copper prices remain strong and production costs are managed effectively, the company could see significant profit growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Should copper prices decline or if the company faces unexpected operational challenges, it could lead to disappointing earnings and a negative stock reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected copper production for Q3-2026?
Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a key metric for investors.
Q2
How have copper prices affected margins this quarter?
Understanding the impact of copper prices on margins will help gauge the company's profitability and future outlook.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±13.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the impact of operational efficiencies and cost management on margins this quarter.
Supporting evidence
SCCO has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong operational capabilities.
Recent trends in copper prices indicate potential for higher margins than what analysts are projecting.
Key risk
If production levels fall short of 1 million tons, it could lead to a significant downward revision in earnings expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core thesis revolves around how production levels and copper prices will influence earnings this quarter.
Bull confirmed if
Copper production exceeding 1 million tons with margins holding above 30%.
Bear confirmed if
Copper prices falling below $3.50 per pound, significantly impacting profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.43%
Historical Avg
±3.6%
The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.4% while SCCO has averaged ±3.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
38.8%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$20,000.00
100 sh
1 insider
Net
$20,000.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
9.82%
of float
Insider
90.06%
of float
Holders
1,177
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
10,043,921 sh · $2.0B
1.20%
4.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If SCCO beats earnings expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 1.4%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as the market digests management's commentary.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 5.1%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$20,000.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 24, 2026 · @ $200.00
100 sh
$20,000.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Capital World Investors
7,854,819 sh · $1.6B
0.94%
-10.8%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
3,176,590 sh · $637.1M
0.38%
8.6%
State Street Corporation
3,064,912 sh · $614.7M
0.37%
2.9%
Fisher Asset Management, LLC
2,822,889 sh · $566.2M
0.34%
19.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.