Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Aug 11, 2026
EPS actual
$0.70
EPS est.
$0.78
EPS surprise
-9.68%
1-day move
+14.56%
Sea Limited's Q2 2026 earnings showed strong revenue growth, particularly in Shopee and Monee, despite a slight miss on EPS. The stock reacted positively, rising 14.56%, likely driven by the impressive revenue and adjusted EBITDA figures. The reaffirmation of Shopee's EBITDA guidance suggests management's confidence in continued growth.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.70 | N/A | -9.68% |
| Revenue | $7.8B | N/A | N/A |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $917M | N/A | N/A |
| Shopee GMV | $38.3B | N/A | N/A |
| Monee Loan Book | $11.1B | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed confidence in the growth of Shopee and the overall performance of the company. They highlighted significant year-over-year increases in revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
Management reaffirmed guidance for Shopee to achieve $1B in adjusted EBITDA for the full year.
Sea Limited is a consumer discretionary company focused on broadline retail, which includes a variety of products and services. With a market cap of $75 billion, it plays a significant role in the retail sector, especially as consumer spending patterns evolve in a post-pandemic world.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Sea Limited reported an EPS of $0.67, slightly below the expected $0.70, resulting in a 4.96% surprise. The stock reacted positively, gaining 13.14% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-7.18%
Avg 1-day reaction
+5.98%
Overall, expectations for Sea Limited are mixed as the company has faced challenges in meeting earnings estimates in recent quarters. Investors are looking for signs of recovery and growth in revenue.
Bull case
If Sea Limited can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved customer acquisition costs, it could signal a turnaround, attracting more investors.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations again, it may lead to further declines in stock price, as investors lose confidence.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected revenue growth rate for this quarter?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand and attract new customers, impacting investor sentiment.
Q2
How have customer acquisition costs changed compared to previous quarters?
Changes in customer acquisition costs can indicate the effectiveness of marketing strategies and overall business health.
—
Est. EPS
$0.20
Est. Rev
$609M
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Sea Limited's potential for revenue growth due to its diversified product offerings and expanding market presence.
Supporting evidence
The stock has shown resilience with positive reactions in previous quarters despite misses.
Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant volatility.
The company's recent marketing strategies may lead to improved customer acquisition costs, contrary to current bearish sentiment.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching these metrics as they will provide insight into the company's financial health and growth potential.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth of 15% or more compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
If EPS falls below $0.60, it would reinforce the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±17.12%
Historical Avg
±12.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±17.1% while SE has averaged ±12.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
54.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 15 of 28 (54%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 15 of 28 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of +2.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$4.8M
50,600 sh
2 insiders
Net
$4.8M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 30 open-market trades
$1.0M
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Sea Limited beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 13.64%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors remain cautious.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 2.97%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$3.8M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $94.43
17,391 sh
$1.6M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $95.20
15,146 sh
$1.4M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $96.04
7,463 sh
$716,746.52
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $97.61
933 sh
$91,070.13
Sep 23, 2026 · @ $102.77
816 sh
$83,860.32
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.