Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.44
EPS est.
$0.33
EPS surprise
+33.33%
1-day move
+10.21%
Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is a footwear company known for its stylish and trendy shoe designs. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends, making it an interesting watch as the economy evolves.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Steven Madden reported an EPS of $0.45, beating expectations by nearly 8%. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 6% the following day.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.85%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.50%
Analysts expect Steven Madden to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.64. The market is hopeful for continued growth in revenue as consumer spending remains strong.
Bull case
If the company beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, likely boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses its EPS target or reports weaker-than-expected revenue, it may raise concerns about slowing consumer demand and could lead to a decline in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.64Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely monitored by investors.
Revenue
738MTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.64?
A beat on EPS would reinforce positive sentiment and could drive the stock higher.
Q2
What revenue figure will the company report, and how does it compare to the $738M consensus?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand and growth potential, influencing investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±13.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
While consensus expects steady growth, the market may be underestimating the potential for a stronger-than-expected demand surge, especially if the company can leverage new trends in consumer preferences.
Supporting evidence
The recent positive EPS surprises indicate a trend of better-than-expected performance.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders may anticipate volatility that could favor a bullish outcome.
Key risk
If the company reports revenue significantly below $738M, it could challenge the current optimistic outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is focused on whether Steven Madden can maintain its growth trajectory in a competitive retail environment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm strong demand and profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.59 would indicate potential issues with sales or margins.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.99%
Historical Avg
±8.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.0% while SHOO has averaged ±8.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
38.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.39%
of float
Insider
2.17%
of float
Holders
414
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
11,310,357 sh · $504.4M
15.46%
4.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If the company beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction of around +2.57%, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting a potential average drop of around +2.16%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
FMR, LLC
7,118,821 sh · $317.5M
9.73%
-11.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
4,580,272 sh · $204.3M
6.26%
3.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,290,615 sh · $146.8M
4.50%
1.3%
State Street Corporation
2,895,948 sh · $129.2M
3.96%
5.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.