Health Care·Biotechnology·$2.7B
Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare diseases. With a market cap of $3 billion, it operates in the health care sector, where advancements in biotechnology are crucial for improving patient outcomes.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely watch this quarter.
Revenue Growth
Although revenue figures are not available, any future guidance or expectations regarding revenue growth will be critical for assessing the company's market position.
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EPS Beat Streak
4Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
+1913.67%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.05%
In the last quarter, Soleno reported an EPS of $0.80, exceeding expectations by 25.39%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.72% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has shown strong EPS surprises in the past, but revenue details remain unclear. Investors are eager to see if the positive momentum continues.
Bull Case
If Soleno can maintain its trend of beating EPS estimates and provide positive guidance on future revenue, it could lead to a significant stock price increase.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides disappointing guidance, it could result in a sharp decline in stock price.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
N/AEPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely watch this quarter.
Revenue Growth
N/AAlthough revenue figures are not available, any future guidance or expectations regarding revenue growth will be critical for assessing the company's market position.
R&D Spending
N/AInvestment in research and development is vital for biotech companies, as it reflects their commitment to innovation and future product pipelines.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q1-2026?
Given the company's history of EPS surprises, this number will be crucial for determining market sentiment post-earnings.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?
Investors will be keen to understand the company's outlook, as revenue growth is essential for sustaining investor confidence.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Soleno's ability to continue its strong EPS performance, given the recent trends in their earnings history.
Supporting Evidence
The company has a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility.
Strong historical performance in the previous quarter could lead to continued positive sentiment.
Key Risk
If the EPS comes in below $0.60, it could significantly undermine the bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on whether Soleno can continue its trend of beating EPS expectations while providing solid revenue guidance.
Bull Confirmed If
A positive EPS surprise of $0.85 or higher would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.60 would confirm the bear case.
Implied Move
±5%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a 5% move in either direction, indicating that investors expect some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.0% while SLNO has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
n=30Fade rate: 7 of 20 (35%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 20 (65%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Soleno beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.3%.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may experience minimal movement.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of about 1.19%.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
CARNIVAL CORP
Mar 22, 2022