Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$4.53
EPS est.
$3.97
EPS surprise
+14.16%
1-day move
-4.53%
Scotts Miracle-Gro's earnings report shows a strong performance in EPS, exceeding expectations significantly. However, the lack of revenue data and no guidance updates may leave investors cautious. The stock reaction remained flat, indicating that investors are weighing the positive EPS surprise against uncertainties in revenue and future guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $4.53 | $4.01 | +14.16% |
| Revenue | N/A | $1.4B | N/A |
Overall, management expressed confidence in their strategic direction while acknowledging external challenges. They are focused on maintaining operational efficiency.
Management highlighted strong operational performance despite challenging market conditions.
They emphasized their commitment to innovation and customer engagement.
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of lawn and garden products, including fertilizers and seeds. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance can be influenced by consumer spending trends and agricultural demand.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Scotts reported an EPS of -$0.77, outperforming expectations by 25.68%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.68% the following day.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.85%
Avg 1-day reaction
-5.86%
Analysts expect Scotts Miracle-Gro to report improved earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $4.01. The market is keenly watching for signs of recovery in consumer demand.
Bull case
If Scotts can deliver strong EPS and revenue figures, it may signal a rebound in consumer spending and confidence in the gardening sector, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the market, leading to a further decline in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$4.01EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$1.4BRevenue reflects the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts' products, which is vital for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus of $4.01?
A strong EPS could indicate effective cost management and recovery in sales, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?
Investors will be looking for insights into future sales trends, especially in light of recent consumer spending patterns.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for a strong recovery in consumer demand, especially as gardening trends remain popular.
Supporting evidence
The company has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 75% EPS beat rate in recent quarters.
Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that traders expect significant movement, which could be bullish.
Recent trends in home improvement spending may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect the company's ability to recover from previous losses and adapt to market conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $4.10 or higher with revenue exceeding $1.4B would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.93 or weak revenue guidance would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.52%
Historical Avg
±6.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±9.3% while SMG has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
51.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
88.80%
of float
Insider
23.67%
of float
Holders
597
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
4,460,250 sh · $220.3M
7.67%
0.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Scotts beats expectations, history suggests a modest stock increase of around 1.57%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 8.83%, indicating ongoing struggles in the market.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
FMR, LLC
4,096,622 sh · $202.4M
7.04%
91.3%
Earnest Partners LLC
3,630,876 sh · $179.4M
6.24%
6.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,424,539 sh · $119.8M
4.17%
-3.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,978,656 sh · $97.7M
3.40%
1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.