Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of lawn and garden products, including fertilizers and agricultural chemicals. As a key player in the materials sector, the company benefits from trends in consumer gardening and outdoor living, which have gained popularity in recent years.
EPS
Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
Total revenue reflects the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts' products, which is vital for assessing growth.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
1Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.83%
Avg Stock Reaction
-3.38%
In Q1 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported an EPS of -$0.77, beating expectations by 25.68%. However, the revenue details were not disclosed, and the stock fell slightly the next day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Scotts Miracle-Gro to report a solid EPS of $4.01 this quarter, reflecting a recovery in profitability. However, the company’s recent history of mixed earnings surprises adds uncertainty.
Bull Case
If the company reports a strong earnings beat, it could signal a robust recovery in demand for its products, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear Case
Conversely, if earnings fall short of expectations, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the gardening market, leading to a negative reaction.
EPS
$4.01Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$1.4BTotal revenue reflects the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts' products, which is vital for assessing growth.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed $4.01?
A strong EPS could indicate effective cost management and recovery in demand, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue trends in the gardening sector?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the overall health of the business and its ability to capitalize on consumer gardening interest.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for recovery in consumer gardening demand, which could drive stronger-than-expected earnings.
Supporting Evidence
The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate in recent quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that may not be reflected in consensus estimates.
Key Risk
If revenue shows unexpected growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the potential for recovery in earnings against the backdrop of mixed performance in previous quarters.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $4.10 or higher would confirm strong profitability and effective cost management.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $3.93 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to a sell-off.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±6.43%
Historical Avg
±7.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting traders anticipate volatility.
Options are pricing ±6.4% while SMG has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
30d HV
51.1%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials
n=30Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.1%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Scotts beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 1.57%, confirming a positive trend.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable but could react to management commentary, leading to a muted response.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 8.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over the company's direction.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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