Equity Profile

TMC

TMC the metals company Inc.

MaterialsDiversified Metals & Mining$1.7B

Aug13Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

TMC the metals company Inc. is involved in the diversified metals and mining sector, focusing on sustainable practices in the extraction of metals from the ocean floor....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to scale its operations and meet market demand.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TMC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

TMC the metals company Inc. is involved in the diversified metals and mining sector, focusing on sustainable practices in the extraction of metals from the ocean floor. As the demand for metals increases with the growth of green technologies, TMC's operations could play a significant role in supplying these essential materials.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-120.42%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.74%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, TMC reported an EPS of -$0.05, which was better than the expected -$0.06, resulting in a slight stock increase the following day. However, the company has struggled with consistent profitability in previous quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, hoping for signs of improved financial performance after a mixed earnings history. The lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.

Bull Case

If TMC can show a significant reduction in losses or even a path to profitability, it could attract more investor interest and drive the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Continued losses or disappointing revenue figures could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the company's recent history of earnings misses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will TMC report an EPS closer to breakeven or show continued losses?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining investor confidence and the company's financial health moving forward.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Revenue growth is essential for TMC to demonstrate its potential for profitability and attract further investment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate TMC's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.37% move, suggesting expectations are high for volatility, which may not align with TMC's actual performance.

TMC's recent EPS surprise of +16.67% indicates potential for positive momentum that the market may not fully appreciate.

Key Risk

If TMC reports an EPS significantly better than -$0.05, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether TMC can show signs of financial improvement or if it will continue to face significant losses.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS of -$0.03 or better would confirm the bull case and signal improved financial management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.10 or worse would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.37%

Historical Avg

±3.34%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating that traders expect volatility.

Options price a 6.37% move but the stock has averaged only 3.34% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

84.2%

Calls (3.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (260K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TMC beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.60% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see little movement or a slight decline.

Miss

If TMC misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.18% on the first day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into demand for metals and how it may affect future revenue.
3Details on operational improvements or new projects that could drive growth.
4Management's commentary on market conditions and competitive landscape.
5Any guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter.

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Company Snapshot

TMC the metals company Inc. is involved in the diversified metals and mining sector, focusing on sustainable practices in the extraction of metals from the ocean floor....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to scale its operations and meet market demand.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TMC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-120.42%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.74%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If TMC can show a significant reduction in losses or even a path to profitability, it could attract more investor interest and drive the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Continued losses or disappointing revenue figures could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the company's recent history of earnings misses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will TMC report an EPS closer to breakeven or show continued losses?

The EPS figure will be crucial in determining investor confidence and the company's financial health moving forward.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Revenue growth is essential for TMC to demonstrate its potential for profitability and attract further investment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate TMC's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.37% move, suggesting expectations are high for volatility, which may not align with TMC's actual performance.

TMC's recent EPS surprise of +16.67% indicates potential for positive momentum that the market may not fully appreciate.

Key Risk

If TMC reports an EPS significantly better than -$0.05, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether TMC can show signs of financial improvement or if it will continue to face significant losses.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS of -$0.03 or better would confirm the bull case and signal improved financial management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.10 or worse would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.37%

Historical Avg

±3.34%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating that traders expect volatility.

Options price a 6.37% move but the stock has averaged only 3.34% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.0%

30d HV

84.2%

Calls (3.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (260K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TMC beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.60% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see little movement or a slight decline.

Miss

If TMC misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.18% on the first day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into demand for metals and how it may affect future revenue.
3Details on operational improvements or new projects that could drive growth.
4Management's commentary on market conditions and competitive landscape.
5Any guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter.