Equity Profile

TOL

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding$12.9B

Aug18Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a leading homebuilder in the consumer discretionary sector, focusing on luxury homes....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will reflect how well the company is managing costs and sales.

N/A

New Home Sales

This metric indicates demand for new homes, which directly impacts Toll Brothers' revenue and growth prospects.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TOL Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a leading homebuilder in the consumer discretionary sector, focusing on luxury homes. As housing demand fluctuates, the company's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the real estate market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, Toll Brothers reported an EPS of $2.72, exceeding expectations by 5.39%. However, the stock fell 2.23% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's recent EPS beats but are wary of potential revenue surprises.

Bull Case

If Toll Brothers can demonstrate strong demand through new home sales and maintain or increase average selling prices, it could signal robust growth.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing sales figures or lower-than-expected EPS, it may raise concerns about the sustainability of its growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the new home sales figures indicate about market demand?

Given the current economic climate, strong sales figures could reassure investors about the company's growth trajectory.

How has the average selling price changed compared to previous quarters?

This metric will help assess whether Toll Brothers can maintain its pricing power in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the resilience of luxury home demand, especially in high-income segments, which could lead to stronger-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends show a rebound in luxury home sales, which could positively impact Toll Brothers.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Insider selling may not reflect overall company health, as it could be individual circumstances rather than a lack of confidence in the business.

Key Risk

If new home sales exceed expectations, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the sustainability of demand in the housing market and the company's ability to maintain pricing.

Bull Confirmed If

New home sales growth of +10% or better compared to last quarter.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in average selling prices by more than 5% would raise significant concerns.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.28%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.3% while TOL has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

43.9%

Calls (52K)P/C Ratio: 1.03Puts (19K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +2.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$139,700.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$139,700.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Toll Brothers beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.34% on the day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see limited movement.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new home sales figures and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Any changes in the average selling price and its implications for margins.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and consumer demand.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
5Discussion on any regional differences in sales performance.

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Company Snapshot

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a leading homebuilder in the consumer discretionary sector, focusing on luxury homes....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will reflect how well the company is managing costs and sales.

N/A

New Home Sales

This metric indicates demand for new homes, which directly impacts Toll Brothers' revenue and growth prospects.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TOL Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, Toll Brothers reported an EPS of $2.72, exceeding expectations by 5.39%. However, the stock fell 2.23% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's recent EPS beats but are wary of potential revenue surprises.

Bull Case

If Toll Brothers can demonstrate strong demand through new home sales and maintain or increase average selling prices, it could signal robust growth.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing sales figures or lower-than-expected EPS, it may raise concerns about the sustainability of its growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the new home sales figures indicate about market demand?

Given the current economic climate, strong sales figures could reassure investors about the company's growth trajectory.

How has the average selling price changed compared to previous quarters?

This metric will help assess whether Toll Brothers can maintain its pricing power in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the resilience of luxury home demand, especially in high-income segments, which could lead to stronger-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends show a rebound in luxury home sales, which could positively impact Toll Brothers.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Insider selling may not reflect overall company health, as it could be individual circumstances rather than a lack of confidence in the business.

Key Risk

If new home sales exceed expectations, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the sustainability of demand in the housing market and the company's ability to maintain pricing.

Bull Confirmed If

New home sales growth of +10% or better compared to last quarter.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in average selling prices by more than 5% would raise significant concerns.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.28%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.3% while TOL has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

43.9%

Calls (52K)P/C Ratio: 1.03Puts (19K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$139,700.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$139,700.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Toll Brothers beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.34% on the day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see limited movement.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new home sales figures and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Any changes in the average selling price and its implications for margins.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and consumer demand.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
5Discussion on any regional differences in sales performance.