Equity Profile

TOST

Toast, Inc.

FinancialsTransaction & Payment Processing Services$17.4B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Toast, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides a platform for restaurants to manage their operations, payments, and customer engagement....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Expected to be around $0.20

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is crucial for long-term success.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TOST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Toast, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides a platform for restaurants to manage their operations, payments, and customer engagement. With a market cap of $17 billion, it plays a significant role in the transaction and payment processing services sector, which is increasingly important as consumer spending continues to shift towards digital solutions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+89.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.64%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Toast reported an EPS of $0.20, surpassing estimates by 25%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.78% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing customer service features.
Commitment to expanding into new markets.
Plans to improve integration with third-party applications.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS beat. However, there is uncertainty about revenue growth and customer retention.

Bull Case

If Toast can show strong revenue growth and maintain high customer retention, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if revenue growth falls short or customer retention declines, it could raise concerns about the company's competitive position and lead to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Expected to be around $0.20

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue Growth

Not available

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is crucial for long-term success.

Customer Retention Rate

Not available

This metric reflects how well Toast is maintaining its existing customer relationships, which is vital in the competitive restaurant technology space.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for Q2-2026?

This will be critical in assessing whether Toast is expanding its market share and meeting investor expectations.

How has the customer retention rate changed compared to last quarter?

A decline in retention could indicate potential issues with customer satisfaction and long-term growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Toast's potential for revenue growth due to its expanding product offerings and market presence.

Supporting Evidence

Recent EPS beats suggest strong operational efficiency.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages indicate.

Toast's focus on customer engagement tools could drive higher retention rates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Toast can grow its revenue and retain customers in a competitive market.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth of 15% or higher compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue growth rate below 5% would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.82%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while TOST has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

63.0%

Calls (760K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (247K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 25 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 11 of 25 faded and 14 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Toast beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a positive stock reaction, averaging a 3.05% increase on such news.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction.

Miss

If the company misses on earnings or revenue, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.77% on the following day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product features that enhance customer engagement.
2Insights into market expansion plans and their expected impact on revenue.
3Details on customer retention strategies and their effectiveness.
4Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the restaurant technology space.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending.

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Company Snapshot

Toast, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides a platform for restaurants to manage their operations, payments, and customer engagement....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Expected to be around $0.20

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is crucial for long-term success.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TOST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+89.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.64%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Toast reported an EPS of $0.20, surpassing estimates by 25%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.78% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing customer service features.
Commitment to expanding into new markets.
Plans to improve integration with third-party applications.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS beat. However, there is uncertainty about revenue growth and customer retention.

Bull Case

If Toast can show strong revenue growth and maintain high customer retention, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if revenue growth falls short or customer retention declines, it could raise concerns about the company's competitive position and lead to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Expected to be around $0.20

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue Growth

Not available

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is crucial for long-term success.

Customer Retention Rate

Not available

This metric reflects how well Toast is maintaining its existing customer relationships, which is vital in the competitive restaurant technology space.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected revenue growth rate for Q2-2026?

This will be critical in assessing whether Toast is expanding its market share and meeting investor expectations.

How has the customer retention rate changed compared to last quarter?

A decline in retention could indicate potential issues with customer satisfaction and long-term growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Toast's potential for revenue growth due to its expanding product offerings and market presence.

Supporting Evidence

Recent EPS beats suggest strong operational efficiency.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages indicate.

Toast's focus on customer engagement tools could drive higher retention rates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Toast can grow its revenue and retain customers in a competitive market.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth of 15% or higher compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue growth rate below 5% would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.82%

Historical Avg

±3.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while TOST has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

63.0%

Calls (760K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (247K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 25 (44%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Toast beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a positive stock reaction, averaging a 3.05% increase on such news.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction.

Miss

If the company misses on earnings or revenue, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.77% on the following day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product features that enhance customer engagement.
2Insights into market expansion plans and their expected impact on revenue.
3Details on customer retention strategies and their effectiveness.
4Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the restaurant technology space.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending.