Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 16, 2026
EPS actual
$4.31
EPS est.
$3.87
EPS surprise
+11.48%
1-day move
-2.32%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported better-than-expected earnings per share, indicating strong performance in profitability. However, the stock fell by 2.32%, suggesting that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information or future guidance. The market reaction reflects uncertainty despite the EPS beat.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $4.31 | $3.74 | +11.48% |
| Revenue | — | $1261.2B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is a leading semiconductor manufacturer that plays a crucial role in the global tech supply chain. As a key supplier for major technology companies, TSM is at the forefront of trends like artificial intelligence and cloud computing, making its performance vital for investors in the information technology sector.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, TSM reported an EPS of $3.49, exceeding estimates by 5.47%. However, the stock saw a decline of 3.13% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+8.54%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.81%
Analysts are generally optimistic about TSM's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance based on previous results. The consensus estimates suggest continued growth in earnings and revenue.
Bull case
If TSM beats earnings expectations, it could signal strong demand for semiconductors, particularly in AI and cloud sectors, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if TSM fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about demand weakness in the semiconductor market, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$3.74Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$1261.2BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will TSM's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.74?
A beat on EPS would reinforce TSM's strong profitability and could boost investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the consensus of $1261.2B?
Revenue performance will indicate market demand and could influence future growth projections.
—
Est. EPS
$1.15
Est. Rev
$178M
Impl. Move
±7.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating TSM's ability to capture growth in AI and cloud markets, which could lead to higher-than-expected demand and revenue.
Supporting evidence
TSM's historical EPS surprises indicate strong performance potential.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating market anticipation of volatility.
Recent trends in semiconductor demand have shown resilience despite broader market concerns.
Key risk
If TSM's revenue exceeds $1283.0B, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The earnings report will be closely scrutinized for signs of demand strength in the semiconductor sector, especially given recent market volatility.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $3.80 or higher with revenue exceeding $1283.0B would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.67 or revenue falling short of $1225.0B would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.41%
Historical Avg
±3.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±13.4% while TSM has averaged ±3.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
38.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors
Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$121,466.70
1,530 sh
30 insiders
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$121,466.70
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 31 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
15.50%
of float
Insider
0.01%
of float
Holders
4,656
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
58,937,551 sh · $27.8B
1.14%
-2.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If TSM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 2.15%, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the semiconductor market.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 3.33%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
3 buys·0 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$3,731.33
Net buying
$11,432.16
Net buying
$5,398.52
Net buying
$5,319.13
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Oct 7, 2026 · @ $79.39
144 sh
$11,432.16
Oct 7, 2026 · @ $79.39
68 sh
$5,398.52
Oct 7, 2026 · @ $79.39
67 sh
$5,319.13
Oct 7, 2026 · @ $79.39
60 sh
$4,763.40
Oct 7, 2026 · @ $79.39
59 sh
$4,684.01
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Capital World Investors
34,372,274 sh · $16.2B
0.66%
4.5%
Sanders Capital, LLC
26,149,064 sh · $12.3B
0.50%
-6.8%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
23,829,286 sh · $11.3B
0.46%
-0.6%
Blackrock Inc.
20,112,852 sh · $9.5B
0.39%
10.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 12, 2026 · disclosed Sep 22, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 30, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 8, 2026 · disclosed Jun 16, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.