Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Feb 11, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±1.1%
EPS beat rate
25%
TotalEnergies SE is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on integrated oil and gas operations. With a market cap of $190 billion, the company is involved in various energy segments, including renewable energy, which aligns with the global shift towards sustainable energy solutions.
Last quarter
In Q3 2025, TotalEnergies reported an EPS of $1.77, slightly missing estimates. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.93% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-2.35%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.99%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about TotalEnergies' upcoming earnings report, especially given the recent volatility in oil prices. However, the company has missed EPS estimates in the last three quarters, raising concerns.
Bull case
If TotalEnergies can beat EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Continued misses on EPS and revenue could indicate deeper issues within the company, potentially leading to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will TotalEnergies report an EPS above $1.80?
Given the company's recent trend of missing EPS estimates, a positive surprise could restore investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to last quarter?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market demand and manage costs effectively.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate TotalEnergies' ability to leverage rising oil prices for improved margins, especially given its recent investments in renewable energy.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a modest move, suggesting a lack of confidence in a significant change in sentiment.
TotalEnergies' historical performance shows a pattern of recovery following previous misses, indicating potential for a rebound.
Recent trends in oil prices suggest a more favorable environment for profitability than what analysts may be anticipating.
Key risk
If oil prices rise significantly, it could lead to a substantial positive surprise in earnings, contradicting current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate centers around whether TotalEnergies can overcome its recent performance issues and capitalize on favorable market conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in revenue generation.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±1.08%
Historical Avg
±1.9%
The options market is pricing in a modest move, suggesting that investors expect limited volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±1.1% while TTE has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
22.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If TotalEnergies beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.5%, confirming a recovery narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity on future guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 1.8%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.