Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, Aug 7, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.18
EPS est.
$0.08
EPS surprise
-319.51%
1-day move
+6.04%
Despite missing EPS expectations significantly, Take-Two's stock rose by 6.04%, likely driven by strong net bookings and positive outlook for upcoming game releases. The performance of NBA 2K26 and the anticipation for Grand Theft Auto VI contributed to investor optimism.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.18 | $0.94 | -319.51% |
| Net Bookings | $1.39 billion | N/A | N/A |
| GAAP Net Revenue | $1.5 billion | N/A | +2% |
Management expressed confidence in future performance, particularly with the upcoming launch of Grand Theft Auto VI. They highlighted strong sales from NBA 2K26 and continued growth in recurrent consumer spending.
Management reiterated FY27 net bookings guidance of $8.0B–$8.2B, driven by the anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.
NBA 2K26 sold over 12 million units, with a 9% growth year-over-year.
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) is a leading developer and publisher of interactive entertainment software. The company is known for popular gaming franchises like Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K, making it a significant player in the Communication Services sector, particularly in the interactive home entertainment industry.
Last quarter
In the last quarter (Q4-2026), Take-Two reported an EPS of -$0.32, significantly missing analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively the next day, gaining 0.62%, despite the disappointing results.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
0%
Avg EPS surprise
-1191.16%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.36%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, with expectations for a recovery in EPS and revenue after several quarters of misses. The consensus estimates suggest a potential rebound in performance.
Bull case
If Take-Two can deliver on its EPS and revenue expectations, it may signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet these estimates, it could lead to further declines in stock price, as investor sentiment remains fragile following previous earnings misses.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.94Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenue this quarter.
Revenue
$1.7BTotal revenue is crucial for assessing the company's overall sales performance and market demand for its games.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.94?
This figure is critical for assessing the company's profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth, particularly in key franchises?
Understanding revenue trends will provide insight into market demand and the company's competitive position.
—
Est. EPS
$1.47
Est. Rev
$3.4B
Impl. Move
±9.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in revenue from key franchises, particularly if new game releases perform better than expected.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
Take-Two's strong franchise portfolio could lead to unexpected revenue growth despite recent misses.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds $1.7B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing whether Take-Two can recover from a series of disappointing earnings, making these thresholds critical.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.94 or better would confirm a positive turnaround in earnings.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.35 would reinforce concerns about ongoing profitability issues.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±18.40%
Historical Avg
±2.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±18.4% while TTWO has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
34.4%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$2.1M
10,484 sh
2 insiders
Net
$2.1M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Take-Two beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.54%, confirming a positive shift in sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 0.11% following earnings misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$2.0M
Net selling
$98,585.96
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $202.75
6,002 sh
$1.2M
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $202.18
2,946 sh
$595,622.28
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $200.92
1,052 sh
$211,367.84
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $203.69
484 sh
$98,585.96
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.