Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$2.14
EPS est.
$1.91
EPS surprise
+12.04%
1-day move
+0.99%
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is a leading semiconductor company that designs and manufactures a wide range of electronic components. Its products are crucial for various applications, including automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics, making it a key player in the technology sector.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Texas Instruments reported an EPS of $1.68, surpassing expectations by 22.45%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.36% the following day.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.77%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.97%
Investors are anticipating strong earnings from Texas Instruments, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, uncertainty remains due to the lack of specific guidance for this quarter.
Bull case
If Texas Instruments continues its trend of outperforming EPS estimates, it could see significant stock appreciation, especially if revenue growth is robust.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or if there are signs of declining demand in key markets, the stock could face downward pressure.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $1.68?
Given the company's strong history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be critical in shaping investor sentiment.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in key segments like automotive and industrial?
Understanding revenue trends in these sectors will help gauge the company's future performance and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of Texas Instruments' diverse product portfolio, which could buffer against sector volatility.
Supporting evidence
The company's historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests a strong likelihood of outperforming expectations.
Options pricing indicates a significant move, reflecting investor sentiment that may not align with consensus estimates.
Recent trends in semiconductor demand may not fully reflect Texas Instruments' unique market position.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS below $1.50, it could challenge the current positive sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Texas Instruments can maintain its strong earnings trajectory amidst potential market headwinds.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.75 or higher would confirm the bullish sentiment and suggest strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.50 would raise concerns about demand and profitability, confirming the bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.78%
Historical Avg
±1.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±13.8% while TXN has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
61.3%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.66%
of float
Insider
0.28%
of float
Holders
3,651
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
82,555,483 sh · $23.9B
9.04%
1.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Texas Instruments beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.44%, confirming the bullish outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a modest decline, with historical patterns indicating an average move of around +0.02% when expectations are not met.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
59,441,598 sh · $17.2B
6.51%
0.8%
State Street Corporation
44,453,341 sh · $12.8B
4.87%
3.2%
Invesco Ltd.
37,777,410 sh · $10.9B
4.14%
1.4%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
32,449,245 sh · $9.4B
3.55%
-15.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Apr 14, 2026 · disclosed May 22, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.