Equity Profile

UPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsConsumer Finance$3.0B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

Loan Approval Rates

Higher approval rates could indicate stronger demand and effective AI algorithms.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to scale and attract more customers.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers. Operating in the consumer finance sector, it aims to streamline the loan approval process and provide better rates for borrowers, which is increasingly important in today's economic climate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Upstart reported an earnings per share (EPS) loss of $-0.07, significantly missing expectations of $0.20. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.84% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the significant EPS miss last quarter. The focus will be on whether Upstart can turn around its performance and meet or exceed expectations.

Bull Case

If Upstart demonstrates improved loan approval rates and revenue growth, it could signal a recovery and renewed investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses or a lack of clear growth strategies could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the updated loan approval rates and how do they compare to last quarter?

This metric will be critical in assessing whether Upstart's AI technology is effectively driving growth and improving access to credit.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's recovery trajectory and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Upstart's ability to recover from recent losses due to its innovative AI technology, which could lead to improved loan performance.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 7.73% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's potential recovery.

The historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests that Upstart has a strong track record of exceeding expectations, which may not be fully reflected in current sentiment.

Key Risk

If loan approval rates exceed 75%, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Upstart's ability to leverage its AI technology to enhance loan approval rates and drive revenue growth.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating loan approval rates above 75% would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If loan approval rates fall below 50%, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.73%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.9%

Calls (1.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.92% on the first day, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If Upstart misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.84%, reinforcing negative sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan approval rates and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on revenue growth and market conditions.
3Details on customer acquisition costs and strategies for improvement.
4Insights into the effectiveness of Upstart's AI technology in driving loan approvals.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures and how Upstart plans to address them.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

Loan Approval Rates

Higher approval rates could indicate stronger demand and effective AI algorithms.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to scale and attract more customers.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Upstart reported an earnings per share (EPS) loss of $-0.07, significantly missing expectations of $0.20. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.84% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Upstart demonstrates improved loan approval rates and revenue growth, it could signal a recovery and renewed investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses or a lack of clear growth strategies could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the updated loan approval rates and how do they compare to last quarter?

This metric will be critical in assessing whether Upstart's AI technology is effectively driving growth and improving access to credit.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's recovery trajectory and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Upstart's ability to recover from recent losses due to its innovative AI technology, which could lead to improved loan performance.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 7.73% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's potential recovery.

The historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests that Upstart has a strong track record of exceeding expectations, which may not be fully reflected in current sentiment.

Key Risk

If loan approval rates exceed 75%, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Upstart's ability to leverage its AI technology to enhance loan approval rates and drive revenue growth.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating loan approval rates above 75% would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If loan approval rates fall below 50%, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.73%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.9%

Calls (1.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.92% on the first day, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If Upstart misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.84%, reinforcing negative sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan approval rates and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's outlook on revenue growth and market conditions.
3Details on customer acquisition costs and strategies for improvement.
4Insights into the effectiveness of Upstart's AI technology in driving loan approvals.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures and how Upstart plans to address them.