Equity Profile

UPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsConsumer Finance$3.0B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.55

Revenue

Revenue figures reflect the overall sales performance and growth trajectory of the company, which is crucial for assessing its market position.

352M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers. Operating in the consumer finance sector, Upstart aims to make lending more efficient and fairer by leveraging data and machine learning to assess creditworthiness.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Upstart reported an EPS of -$0.07, missing the estimate of $0.20, which raised concerns about its profitability. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.84% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Upstart's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue growth. The consensus estimates suggest a recovery from the previous quarter's disappointing results.

Bull Case

If Upstart can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in its business model and restore investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its long-term viability and lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.55

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

352M

Revenue figures reflect the overall sales performance and growth trajectory of the company, which is crucial for assessing its market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Upstart achieve an EPS of at least $0.55?

This figure is critical for assessing whether the company can recover from its previous earnings miss and regain investor confidence.

How will revenue growth compare to the consensus estimate of $352M?

Revenue performance is essential for understanding the company's market traction and ability to scale its operations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in Upstart's earnings, especially given the company's innovative approach to credit assessment.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising analysts with positive EPS results despite recent misses.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are expecting significant changes.

Key Risk

If Upstart can demonstrate a significant improvement in revenue growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if Upstart can stabilize after a disappointing previous quarter and regain market trust.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $352M, would confirm a positive outlook for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.41 or revenue under $335M would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to further declines in stock price.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.73%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a notable move for Upstart's stock, indicating that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.9%

Calls (1.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of -0.85%, indicating that even good news may not lead to significant stock price increases.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await clearer signals of recovery.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests an average move of -2.84%, likely leading to a negative market reaction.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on any new partnerships or technology enhancements that could drive growth.
2Management's outlook on consumer credit trends and how they may impact future earnings.
3Any changes in underwriting criteria that could affect loan approval rates.
4Insights into customer acquisition costs and retention strategies.
5Clarification on the company's long-term strategy in the evolving fintech landscape.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug3

ONBMO

ON Semiconductor Corporation

PreviewView

Aug3

LBMO

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit for consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.55

Revenue

Revenue figures reflect the overall sales performance and growth trajectory of the company, which is crucial for assessing its market position.

352M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPST Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Upstart reported an EPS of -$0.07, missing the estimate of $0.20, which raised concerns about its profitability. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.84% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Upstart can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in its business model and restore investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its long-term viability and lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.55

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

352M

Revenue figures reflect the overall sales performance and growth trajectory of the company, which is crucial for assessing its market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Upstart achieve an EPS of at least $0.55?

This figure is critical for assessing whether the company can recover from its previous earnings miss and regain investor confidence.

How will revenue growth compare to the consensus estimate of $352M?

Revenue performance is essential for understanding the company's market traction and ability to scale its operations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in Upstart's earnings, especially given the company's innovative approach to credit assessment.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising analysts with positive EPS results despite recent misses.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are expecting significant changes.

Key Risk

If Upstart can demonstrate a significant improvement in revenue growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if Upstart can stabilize after a disappointing previous quarter and regain market trust.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $352M, would confirm a positive outlook for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.41 or revenue under $335M would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to further declines in stock price.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.73%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a notable move for Upstart's stock, indicating that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.7% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.9%

Calls (1.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of -0.85%, indicating that even good news may not lead to significant stock price increases.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await clearer signals of recovery.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests an average move of -2.84%, likely leading to a negative market reaction.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on any new partnerships or technology enhancements that could drive growth.
2Management's outlook on consumer credit trends and how they may impact future earnings.
3Any changes in underwriting criteria that could affect loan approval rates.
4Insights into customer acquisition costs and retention strategies.
5Clarification on the company's long-term strategy in the evolving fintech landscape.