Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±17.7%
EPS beat rate
63%
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit. Operating in the consumer finance sector, it aims to streamline the loan approval process, making it easier for consumers to secure loans based on their creditworthiness.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Upstart reported an EPS of $0.16, significantly missing the expected $0.30. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.02% the following day despite the miss.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+168.26%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.75%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, especially given the recent volatility in EPS surprises. The market is keen to see if Upstart can improve its earnings performance.
Bull case
If Upstart can beat EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its financial performance, leading to increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its business model and ability to compete in the consumer finance space.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the significant misses in the past, the market will closely watch EPS to gauge if the company is on a recovery path.
Q2
How is Upstart addressing its revenue growth challenges?
Investors need clarity on revenue strategies, especially after recent performance, to understand the company's future potential.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Upstart's potential for recovery, especially given its innovative AI-driven approach to lending, which could attract more customers.
Supporting evidence
Despite recent misses, Upstart has shown a strong ability to surprise positively in previous quarters.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant volatility.
The company's unique technology could provide a competitive edge that is not fully reflected in current valuations.
Key risk
If EPS comes in above $0.30, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market perceptions.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical for determining whether Upstart can stabilize its earnings and regain investor confidence.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.30 or better would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's viability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±19.33%
Historical Avg
±2.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±17.7% while UPST has averaged ±2.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
43.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.1%, with a raw directional average of +0.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
62.72%
of float
Insider
12.94%
of float
Holders
478
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
7,878,717 sh · $189.2M
8.10%
6.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3% on the first day, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.09% on the first day, indicating continued investor skepticism.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,739,758 sh · $89.8M
3.84%
-0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,698,553 sh · $88.8M
3.80%
-1.4%
Morgan Stanley
2,414,712 sh · $58.0M
2.48%
-39.3%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
2,395,222 sh · $57.5M
2.46%
53.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.