Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 13, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.12
EPS est.
$-0.16
EPS surprise
+26.38%
1-day move
-0.51%
USA Rare Earth, Inc. reported a narrower loss than expected, which is a positive sign for investors. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.51%. The lack of revenue figures and guidance may have contributed to the cautious market response.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.12 | $-0.23 | +26.38% |
| Revenue | — | $4M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
USA Rare Earth, Inc. operates in the materials sector, focusing on the mining and production of rare earth elements. These materials are critical for various technologies, including electronics and renewable energy, making the company significant in the context of global supply chains and sustainability efforts.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, USA Rare Earth reported an EPS of $-0.19, which was worse than analysts' expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 7.72% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
17%
Avg EPS surprise
-83.46%
Avg 1-day reaction
-3.42%
Analysts expect a challenging quarter with a consensus EPS of $-0.23 and revenue of $4M. The company has struggled to meet expectations in recent quarters.
Bull case
If the company can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of improving cost management, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Continued losses and failure to meet revenue targets could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.23Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
$4MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the company achieve revenue of at least $4M this quarter?
Meeting or exceeding this revenue target is crucial for restoring investor confidence and showing demand for their products.
Q2
What specific steps is management taking to reduce losses and improve profitability?
Investors will be looking for actionable plans that indicate the company is addressing its ongoing financial challenges.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for a revenue rebound, as recent supply chain improvements could lead to better sales than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating market uncertainty.
The company has not provided guidance, which could mean they are preparing for a surprise.
Recent industry trends show increasing demand for rare earth elements, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If revenue comes in significantly above $4M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of disappointing results, and investors are keen to see if the company can turn things around.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS better than $-0.23 and revenue exceeding $4M would confirm a positive outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-0.35 and revenue below $4M would reinforce concerns about the company's financial health.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.19%
Historical Avg
±3.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.2% while USAR has averaged ±3.6% over the last 6 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.5%
30d HV
104.2%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$1.2M
88,391 sh
1 insider
Net
$1.2M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$1.2M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
38.09%
of float
Insider
33.65%
of float
Holders
497
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
15,560,453 sh · $205.9M
4.15%
10.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If USA Rare Earth beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.86% on the day, confirming a positive shift in momentum.
In line / cautious
If results come in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about future performance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 6.97%, as seen in previous quarters, further eroding investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $13.75
88,391 sh
$1.2M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
State Street Corporation
13,522,226 sh · $178.9M
3.61%
12.1%
Alyeska Investment Group, L.p.
11,290,321 sh · $149.4M
3.01%
-31.9%
UBS Group AG
8,913,844 sh · $117.9M
2.38%
129.5%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
8,913,480 sh · $117.9M
2.38%
178.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.