Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is a leading player in the energy sector, focusing on oil refining and marketing. With a market cap of $70 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supplying fuels and petrochemical products, making it significant in the current energy landscape, especially as global energy demands fluctuate.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Valero managed costs and revenues amid fluctuating oil prices.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for Valero's products and its market position.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
2Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+89.26%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.22%
In Q4 2025, Valero reported an EPS of $3.82, significantly beating estimates by 18.56%. However, the stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.83% the next day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Valero to report strong earnings this quarter, driven by high oil prices and refining margins. However, there are concerns about potential volatility in the energy market.
Bull Case
If Valero beats EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and robust demand, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.
Bear Case
Conversely, if earnings fall short due to rising costs or lower demand, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future performance.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$3.11EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Valero managed costs and revenues amid fluctuating oil prices.
Revenue
$30.0BRevenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for Valero's products and its market position.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will Valero's EPS exceed $3.11?
A strong EPS could indicate effective cost management and robust demand, which are critical for investor confidence.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the current quarter?
Revenue growth will be a key indicator of market demand and operational success, influencing stock performance.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating Valero's ability to capitalize on high refining margins, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.
Supporting Evidence
Valero has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility, which could favor a positive surprise.
Key Risk
If refining margins exceed current expectations, it could lead to a substantial earnings beat.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Valero can sustain its strong performance amid fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $3.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $2.58 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±11.04%
Historical Avg
±2.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.0% while VLO has averaged ±2.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
41.6%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
n=30Fade rate: 9 of 21 (43%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 9 of 21 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.6%, with a raw directional average of +0.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Valero beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.3%, confirming strong operational performance.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jan 9, 2026 · disclosed Feb 13, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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