Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$12.54
EPS est.
$9.87
EPS surprise
+27.05%
1-day move
+3.45%
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a leading player in the oil and gas refining and marketing sector. With a market cap of $99 billion, it plays a crucial role in energy supply, especially as global demand for fuel continues to evolve amidst economic changes and environmental considerations.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Valero reported an earnings surprise with EPS of $4.22, significantly above the estimate of $3.07. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.51% the next day.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+94.36%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.02%
Analysts are generally optimistic about Valero's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS and revenue figures. The consensus reflects confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on market conditions.
Bull case
If Valero exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal strong operational efficiency and robust demand, potentially leading to a stock rally.
Bear case
Conversely, if the earnings fall short of expectations, it may raise concerns about operational challenges or declining market demand, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$15.22Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Valero is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$42.8BTotal revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for refined products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Valero's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $15.22?
A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in the company's profitability and operational efficiency, potentially driving the stock higher.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth given current market conditions?
Understanding revenue trends will provide insights into demand for refined products and the company's market position.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±13.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Valero's ability to capitalize on refining margins, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected EPS.
Supporting evidence
Valero has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a modest move, which may not reflect the potential for a larger upside surprise.
Key risk
If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to EPS well above the consensus estimate.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report is critical as it will reveal how well Valero is navigating current market dynamics and managing costs.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $15.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $14.93 would support the bear case, suggesting potential operational or market challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±2.63%
Historical Avg
±2.7%
The options market is pricing in a modest move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that traders expect some volatility but not extreme changes.
Options are pricing ±2.6% while VLO has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
45.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
87.08%
of float
Insider
0.42%
of float
Holders
2,505
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
25,143,225 sh · $10.7B
8.73%
-3.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
History suggests that if Valero beats expectations, the stock could rise by an average of 1.37%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.
Miss
Should Valero miss earnings expectations, the stock could drop by an average of 3.02%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
19,393,258 sh · $8.2B
6.74%
-1.2%
State Street Corporation
18,903,012 sh · $8.0B
6.57%
-3.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
14,845,028 sh · $6.3B
5.16%
-0.2%
FMR, LLC
8,504,389 sh · $3.6B
2.95%
1.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.