Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.33
Est. revenue
$578M
Implied move
±7.9%
EPS beat rate
50%
Valley National Bancorp is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services including commercial banking, retail banking, and investment services. With a market cap of $7 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the regional banking industry, which is influenced by interest rates and economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Valley National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.30, which was slightly below the expected $0.31, resulting in a minor stock decline the next day. The company did not provide specific revenue figures for that quarter.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.15%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.93%
Analysts expect Valley National Bancorp to report an EPS of $0.33 and revenue of $578 million for Q3 2026, reflecting steady performance amid economic fluctuations.
Bull case
If the bank exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal effective management and a robust lending environment, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the bank misses EPS estimates or reports stagnant revenue, it may indicate underlying issues in its operations or the broader economic environment, potentially leading to a stock decline.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.33EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and how well it is managing its expenses relative to its income.
Revenue
$578MRevenue growth is crucial for assessing the bank's ability to expand its operations and maintain profitability.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.33?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and operational efficiency, which would likely boost investor confidence.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters?
Understanding revenue trends will help investors gauge the bank's growth potential and its ability to navigate economic challenges.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±11.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the bank's ability to capitalize on recent interest rate hikes, which could lead to higher net interest income than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
The bank's historical EPS surprises indicate a pattern of outperforming expectations, with a 63% beat rate in recent quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect more volatility than the consensus reflects.
Key risk
If the bank reports an EPS significantly above $0.34, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate centers around the bank's ability to maintain profitability and revenue growth in a competitive and potentially volatile economic environment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.34 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $581 million, would confirm a strong bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.32 or revenue below $573 million would support a bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.86%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility.
Options are pricing ±7.9% while VLY has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
21.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.1%, with a raw directional average of +0.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.88%
of float
Insider
1.02%
of float
Holders
613
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
73,653,652 sh · $919.2M
22.19%
4.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Valley National Bancorp beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.99%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth prospects.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a modest decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of +0.16% when expectations are not met.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
30,528,862 sh · $381.0M
9.20%
2.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
25,297,793 sh · $315.7M
7.62%
1.2%
State Street Corporation
23,800,351 sh · $297.0M
7.17%
2.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
21,283,880 sh · $265.6M
6.41%
0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.