Equity Profile

VST

Vistra Corp.

UtilitiesIndependent Power Producers & Energy Traders$49.2B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2021Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's estimate reflects market expectations.

$1.46

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall performance and market demand for its energy services.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q2-2021 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading. As a major player in the energy market, its performance is closely tied to electricity demand, regulatory changes, and energy prices.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2021, Vistra Corp. reported a significant earnings miss with an EPS of -$4.21, falling short of expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.04% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent history of misses raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Vistra can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in operational performance and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment, especially given the previous quarter's poor performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.46

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's estimate reflects market expectations.

Revenue

$5.2B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall performance and market demand for its energy services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.46?

A positive EPS could restore some investor confidence after the significant miss last quarter.

What is the revenue guidance for this quarter compared to the consensus of $5.2B?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's recovery and ability to meet market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Vistra's potential for a strong recovery, given recent trends in energy demand and pricing.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 20.25% move, indicating higher volatility than historical averages.

The previous quarter's miss may have created a low bar for expectations, allowing for a potential upside surprise.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $1.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Vistra's ability to rebound from a significant earnings miss last quarter, making this report critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.25%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty or volatility surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±20.2% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

48.7%

Calls (853K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (458K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.8% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.5%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious commentary could lead to a muted reaction.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.04%, reflecting continued investor concern about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on energy pricing trends and how they are impacting margins.
2Details on operational improvements or cost management strategies.
3Insights into demand forecasts for the upcoming quarters.
4Management's commentary on regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.
5Any indications of future capital expenditures or investments in renewable energy.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's estimate reflects market expectations.

$1.46

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall performance and market demand for its energy services.

$5.2B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q2-2021 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2021, Vistra Corp. reported a significant earnings miss with an EPS of -$4.21, falling short of expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.04% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent history of misses raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Vistra can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in operational performance and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment, especially given the previous quarter's poor performance.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.46

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's estimate reflects market expectations.

Revenue

$5.2B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall performance and market demand for its energy services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.46?

A positive EPS could restore some investor confidence after the significant miss last quarter.

What is the revenue guidance for this quarter compared to the consensus of $5.2B?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing the company's recovery and ability to meet market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Vistra's potential for a strong recovery, given recent trends in energy demand and pricing.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 20.25% move, indicating higher volatility than historical averages.

The previous quarter's miss may have created a low bar for expectations, allowing for a potential upside surprise.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $1.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching Vistra's ability to rebound from a significant earnings miss last quarter, making this report critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.25%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty or volatility surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±20.2% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

48.7%

Calls (853K)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (458K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.5%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious commentary could lead to a muted reaction.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 3.04%, reflecting continued investor concern about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on energy pricing trends and how they are impacting margins.
2Details on operational improvements or cost management strategies.
3Insights into demand forecasts for the upcoming quarters.
4Management's commentary on regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.
5Any indications of future capital expenditures or investments in renewable energy.