Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Est. EPS
$1.46
Est. revenue
$5.2B
Implied move
±12.1%
EPS beat rate
0%
Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading. As a significant player in the energy market, it plays a crucial role in providing electricity and managing energy resources, especially amid the ongoing transition to cleaner energy sources.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Vistra reported a significant loss, missing analyst expectations by a wide margin. This disappointing performance led to a decline in the stock price the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
0%
Avg EPS surprise
-30.60%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.85%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent history of earnings misses raises concerns.
Bull case
If Vistra can meet or exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a strong recovery and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.46Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$5.2BRevenue figures provide insight into the overall sales performance and demand for Vistra's energy services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.46?
This figure is critical as it will indicate whether the company has turned around its recent performance issues.
Q2
What are the revenue expectations for this quarter compared to the consensus of $5.2B?
Revenue performance will provide insight into demand for Vistra's services and overall market conditions.
—
Est. EPS
$1.57
Est. Rev
$23.0B
Impl. Move
±4.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in demand for Vistra's services, given the ongoing energy transition.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
Insider selling could suggest a lack of confidence in the near-term outlook, which may not align with broader market trends.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $1.21, it could validate fears of ongoing operational challenges.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal for assessing Vistra's recovery trajectory following a significant earnings miss last quarter.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm a positive turnaround in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.21 would reinforce concerns about ongoing operational difficulties.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.13%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±12.1% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
47.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities
Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.2% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$3.6M
22,222 sh
1 insider
Net
$3.6M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$3.6M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
92.02%
of float
Insider
0.78%
of float
Holders
1,880
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
29,064,465 sh · $4.8B
8.66%
2.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.5%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
If the company misses again, the stock could drop by about 3.04%, reflecting continued investor concern.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 6, 2026 · @ $160.14
22,222 sh
$3.6M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
21,393,858 sh · $3.6B
6.37%
Flat
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
16,939,291 sh · $2.8B
5.05%
0.2%
State Street Corporation
16,850,452 sh · $2.8B
5.02%
0.5%
FMR, LLC
14,160,202 sh · $2.4B
4.22%
-10.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.