Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Vistra Corp (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading. As a significant player in the energy market, its performance can be influenced by factors like energy prices, regulatory changes, and demand for electricity.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue Growth
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to energy demand.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
0%
Avg EPS Surprise
-30.60%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.85%
In Q1 2021, Vistra reported a significant EPS loss of $-4.21, missing estimates by a wide margin. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.04% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the previous quarter's significant loss. The lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.
Bull Case
If Vistra manages to show improved operational efficiency and better-than-expected revenue, it could signal a recovery and boost investor confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company reports another significant loss or fails to provide clear guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
N/AEPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to energy demand.
Operating Margin
N/AOperating margin reflects the efficiency of the company's operations, which is important in the competitive energy sector.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2 2021?
Given the substantial loss last quarter, the market will closely watch EPS to assess if the company is on a path to recovery.
Q2
How is Vistra managing its operational costs?
Cost management is critical for improving profitability, especially in a volatile energy market.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Vistra's ability to rebound from its last quarter's performance, as operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting Evidence
Options pricing indicates a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant news.
The company's focus on cost management may yield better results than analysts anticipate.
Key Risk
If EPS comes in better than expected, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Vistra can recover from its previous losses and improve operational efficiency.
Bull Confirmed If
A return to positive EPS, ideally above $0.50, would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS loss greater than $-4.00 would reinforce bearish sentiment.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±13.53%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±13.5% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
53.9%
Edge
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
92.70%
of float
Insider
0.80%
of float
Holders
1,748
institutions
Top Holders· as of Dec 2025
Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%
Blackrock Inc.
30,325,429 sh · $5.0B
8.96%
3.0%
FMR, LLC
16,995,465 sh · $2.8B
5.02%
-14.6%
State Street Corporation
16,474,869 sh · $2.7B
4.87%
2.7%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
10,745,366 sh · $1.8B
3.17%
-50.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Vistra beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.5%.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line but management offers cautious commentary, the stock may remain stable or see slight fluctuations.
Miss
A significant miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 3%.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
2 buys·0 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$101,002.00–$265,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
Net buying
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Feb 17, 2026 · disclosed Mar 12, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jan 16, 2026 · disclosed Jan 23, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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