Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
Est. EPS
$1.13
Est. revenue
$172M
Implied move
±3.3%
EPS beat rate
75%
WD-40 Company (WDFC) is a leading manufacturer of household products, best known for its multi-purpose lubricant. Operating in the consumer staples sector, the company benefits from consistent demand for its products, which are essential for home maintenance and repair.
Last quarter
In Q3 2026, WD-40 Company reported an impressive EPS of $2.33, significantly surpassing analyst estimates. However, the stock price fell by 2.91% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the strong earnings.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+11.77%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.01%
Analysts expect WD-40 to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.13 and revenue of $172 million. The market is closely watching how the company navigates potential challenges in consumer spending.
Bull case
If WD-40 exceeds earnings expectations, it could indicate strong brand loyalty and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses estimates or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about declining consumer demand and competitive pressures.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.13Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$172MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will WD-40's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.13?
A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's profitability and ability to manage costs effectively, which is crucial in a competitive market.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth is essential for sustaining investor confidence, especially if consumer spending is under pressure.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$5.7B
Impl. Move
±11.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate WD-40's ability to leverage its brand strength and innovate, potentially leading to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate in the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a move of 3.27%, which is higher than the historical average of 2.41%, indicating potential for a larger reaction.
Recent consumer trends show increased DIY activities, which could boost demand for WD-40 products.
Key risk
If revenue growth comes in below $169 million, it could challenge the optimistic outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether WD-40 can maintain its growth trajectory amid economic uncertainties.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market resilience.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.02 would signal potential issues with demand or cost management.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.27%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a moderate move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility.
Options are pricing ±3.3% while WDFC has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
20.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples
Fade rate: 8 of 27 (30%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 19 of 27 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.0%, with a raw directional average of -0.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
90.39%
of float
Insider
0.80%
of float
Holders
505
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
2,075,743 sh · $418.3M
15.47%
2.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If WD-40 beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.27%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
An inline report may lead to muted stock movement as investors await further clarity on future growth prospects.
Miss
If the company misses estimates, the average reaction has been a decline of about 1.35%, reflecting investor concerns over demand.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,075,929 sh · $216.8M
8.02%
3.6%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
629,021 sh · $126.7M
4.69%
-0.8%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
604,460 sh · $121.8M
4.50%
-0.2%
State Street Corporation
549,199 sh · $110.7M
4.09%
4.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.