Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±9.3%
EPS beat rate
75%
The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas storage and transportation. With a market cap of $87 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, making it significant for both energy markets and investors interested in energy infrastructure.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, WMB reported an EPS of $0.50, slightly missing expectations. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.55% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+39.51%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.69%
Overall, expectations for WMB's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially after a slight miss last quarter. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.
Bull case
If WMB can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it could signal a rebound in demand and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate current market challenges, leading to further stock declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.50?
A significant improvement in EPS could indicate a recovery in profitability and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What is the expected revenue growth for this quarter?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge demand for WMB's services and overall market conditions.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating WMB's potential for a strong recovery in EPS and revenue growth, given the recent volatility in energy prices.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 7.04% move, indicating higher expected volatility than historical averages.
WMB has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
Key risk
If EPS exceeds $0.60, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and shift sentiment positively.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a slight miss last quarter, and investors are keen to see if WMB can rebound.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a positive turnaround.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.04%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±9.3% while WMB has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
20.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Energy
Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 16 of 30 faded and 14 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$135,700.00
2,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$135,700.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$135,700.00
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.44%
of float
Insider
0.45%
of float
Holders
2,343
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
115,500,312 sh · $8.3B
9.44%
3.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If WMB beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction, averaging a +1.19% move, confirming a recovery narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of -0.78% following such outcomes.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
4
2 buys·2 sells
Members
1
Senate only
Est. Notional
$5.3M–$25.6M
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
4 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $67.85
2,000 sh
$135,700.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
79,848,153 sh · $5.7B
6.53%
0.6%
State Street Corporation
72,015,506 sh · $5.1B
5.89%
-1.3%
Bank of America Corporation
44,667,824 sh · $3.2B
3.65%
0.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
43,513,739 sh · $3.1B
3.56%
0.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 20, 2026 · disclosed Sep 17, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Aug 19, 2026 · disclosed Sep 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 24, 2026 · disclosed Jul 21, 2026
$5.0M–$25.0M
Traded Jun 22, 2026 · disclosed Jul 21, 2026
$250,001.00–$500,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.