Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 20, 2026
EPS actual
$0.81
EPS est.
$0.73
EPS surprise
+10.20%
1-day move
-9.15%
Walmart reported better-than-expected earnings per share, but the stock fell significantly by 9.15%. The drop may be attributed to the lack of revenue information and guidance, leaving investors uncertain about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.81 | $0.74 | +10.20% |
| Revenue | — | $186.9B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Walmart Inc. is a leading retailer in the consumer staples sector, known for its vast network of stores and e-commerce operations. As a major player in the retail industry, Walmart's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q1-2027, Walmart reported an EPS of $0.66, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock dropped 7.27% the following day, indicating market disappointment despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+3.35%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.48%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Walmart's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest increase in EPS and revenue. The market will be watching closely for any signs of consumer spending strength.
Bull case
If Walmart reports better-than-expected earnings and shows strong sales growth, it could indicate resilience in consumer spending, driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates or reports weak sales, it could raise concerns about consumer demand and negatively impact the stock.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.74Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$186.9BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Walmart's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.74?
A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance and consumer demand, which the market is keen to see.
Q2
How did revenue perform against the expected $186.9B?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing Walmart's market position and ability to attract customers amidst economic pressures.
—
Est. EPS
$3.81
Est. Rev
$1.3B
Impl. Move
±41.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Walmart's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions, which could lead to stronger results than expected.
Supporting evidence
Walmart has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility.
Recent consumer spending trends indicate resilience, which could benefit Walmart's sales.
Key risk
If Walmart's revenue exceeds $188B, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Walmart can maintain its growth trajectory in a challenging economic environment.
Bull confirmed if
Earnings growth of over 5% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A revenue decline or EPS below $0.72 would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.76%
Historical Avg
±4.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.8% while WMT has averaged ±4.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
31.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples
Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$416,595.90
3,990 sh
1 insider
Net
$416,595.90
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$416,595.90
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Walmart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.05% on the next trading day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
An in-line result may lead to muted market reactions, as investors will focus on management's commentary for future guidance.
Miss
If Walmart misses expectations, the stock could drop by an average of 4.49%, reflecting investor disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
1 buy·2 sells
Members
3
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $104.41
3,990 sh
$416,595.90
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
1 trade
Net buying
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 27, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 26, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.