Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±11.1%
EPS beat rate
100%
Zillow Group, Inc. is a leading online real estate marketplace that connects buyers, sellers, and renters with properties. As a key player in the real estate services sector, Zillow's performance is closely tied to housing market trends and consumer behavior.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Zillow reported an EPS of $0.52, significantly surpassing estimates. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite strong earnings.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+1275.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.12%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Zillow's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific revenue guidance raises some concerns.
Bull case
If Zillow continues its trend of strong EPS surprises, it could signal robust operational efficiency and market demand, leading to stock price appreciation.
Bear case
On the other hand, if Zillow fails to provide clear revenue growth signals or if the housing market shows signs of weakness, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What specific revenue growth figures can Zillow provide for the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market trends and maintain investor confidence.
Q2
Will Zillow address any challenges in the current housing market that could impact future performance?
Understanding market challenges will help investors gauge the sustainability of Zillow's growth and profitability.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Zillow's ability to adapt to changing market conditions, particularly in leveraging technology for better customer engagement.
Supporting evidence
Zillow's consistent EPS surprises indicate strong operational management.
The options market suggests heightened volatility, which could be due to upcoming strategic announcements.
Historical performance shows that Zillow has successfully navigated market challenges in the past.
Key risk
If Zillow's revenue growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around Zillow's ability to maintain growth in a potentially cooling housing market.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue growth rate of over 15% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Any indication of declining market share or revenue growth below 5% would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.44%
Historical Avg
±2.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.1% while Z has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
49.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
97.61%
of float
Insider
5.53%
of float
Holders
579
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Caledonia (Private) Investments Pty Ltd
24,102,956 sh · $657.5M
13.60%
-6.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Zillow beats expectations again, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 2% on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down as investors digest the commentary.
Miss
If Zillow misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.12% on the first day, which could lead to further selling pressure.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Independent Franchise Partners, LLP
16,300,754 sh · $444.7M
9.20%
23.5%
Capital World Investors
14,240,643 sh · $388.5M
8.03%
0.3%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
13,327,843 sh · $363.6M
7.52%
-4.9%
Blackrock Inc.
8,159,260 sh · $222.6M
4.60%
-18.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.