Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.07
EPS est.
$-0.10
EPS surprise
+32.04%
1-day move
-11.76%
Applied Optoelectronics reported a wider loss per share than expected, which may raise concerns among investors. However, the stock reaction remained unchanged at 0.00%, indicating that investors may have anticipated the results. The lack of revenue data and guidance leaves uncertainty about the company's future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.07 | $-0.05 | +32.04% |
| Revenue | — | $155M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is a technology company that specializes in manufacturing optical networking products. As demand for high-speed internet and data transmission continues to grow, AAOI plays a crucial role in providing the necessary equipment for telecommunications and data centers.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, AAOI reported an EPS of $-0.01, significantly beating expectations of $-0.16. However, the stock dropped by 7.62% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the positive surprise.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+82.27%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.29%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AAOI's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a slight loss but improved revenue compared to previous quarters.
Bull case
If AAOI can beat the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in demand for its products, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given recent insider selling.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.05Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$155MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will AAOI's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $155M?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing demand for AAOI's products and could influence investor sentiment.
Q2
Can AAOI achieve a better EPS than the consensus estimate of $-0.05?
A stronger-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are vital for recovery.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±14.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate AAOI's potential for a turnaround as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
AAOI has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate over the last eight quarters.
Recent insider selling may not reflect a lack of confidence in the company's future, as it could be part of individual financial strategies.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate a surprise in either direction.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $159M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects the company's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on demand.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving revenue growth above $155M with an EPS better than $-0.05 would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Failing to meet the revenue estimate and reporting an EPS worse than $-0.08 would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±21.96%
Historical Avg
±7.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±19.5% while AAOI has averaged ±7.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
3.3%
30d HV
137.0%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$720,180.00
6,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$720,180.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$720,180.00
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
63.35%
of float
Insider
9.78%
of float
Holders
631
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,450,270 sh · $790.4M
7.63%
-10.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AAOI beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.51%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 3.87%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $120.03
6,000 sh
$720,180.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Invesco Ltd.
3,414,262 sh · $418.4M
4.04%
69.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,363,001 sh · $412.1M
3.98%
9.9%
Marex Group Ltd.
2,830,272 sh · $346.8M
3.35%
878.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,651,718 sh · $324.9M
3.14%
47.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.