Equity Profile

AAON

AAON, Inc.

IndustrialsBuilding Products$10.9B

May7Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

AAON Beats on EPS, Stock Up 31.49%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.48	$0.29	+53.35%
Revenue	—	$384M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

AAON Beats on EPS, Stock Up 31.49%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.48	$0.29	+53.35%
Revenue	—	$384M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

AAON's strong earnings per share performance significantly exceeded expectations, resulting in a 31.49% increase in stock price. The lack of revenue data leaves some uncertainty, but the EPS beat indicates strong operational performance. Investors reacted positively, likely anticipating continued growth based on these results.

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.

0.29

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

384M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Operating in the industrials sector, the company plays a crucial role in the building products industry, focusing on sustainability and energy efficiency, which are increasingly important themes in today's market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, AAON reported an EPS of $0.39, falling short of the expected $0.45, leading to a 3.49% increase in stock price the following day. The company has shown mixed performance in recent quarters, with significant surprises in both directions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect AAON to report an EPS of $0.29 and revenue of $384 million for Q1-2026. The market is closely watching how the company navigates ongoing supply chain challenges and demand fluctuations.

Bull Case

If AAON can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it may signal robust demand for its products, leading to positive investor sentiment.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market competitiveness, potentially leading to a decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.29

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.

Revenue

384M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AAON achieve an EPS of at least $0.29?

This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and could influence investor confidence.

What revenue growth can AAON report this quarter?

Revenue performance will indicate market demand and the company's ability to capitalize on opportunities in the HVAC sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate AAON's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and capitalize on energy efficiency trends, which could lead to stronger-than-expected performance.

Supporting Evidence

Recent insider selling may indicate a lack of confidence in the company's near-term performance, contrasting with the bullish consensus.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

AAON's recent earnings history shows a mixed track record, indicating that surprises are possible.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether AAON can maintain its growth trajectory amid economic challenges and supply chain issues.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.24 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.51%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.6% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.3%

30d HV

58.7%

Calls (114K)P/C Ratio: 0.10Puts (2K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.4M

14,804 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.4M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 5 open-market trades

Chief Administration OfficerKidwell Casey
$470,250.00

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.48%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -8.43%, raising concerns about its future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements and their impact on production timelines.
2Insights into customer demand trends for HVAC products in the current economic climate.
3Management's commentary on cost management and pricing strategies.
4Details on any new product launches or innovations in energy efficiency.
5Guidance on future quarters and how the company plans to navigate market challenges.

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Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.

0.29

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

384M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If AAON can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it may signal robust demand for its products, leading to positive investor sentiment.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market competitiveness, potentially leading to a decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.29

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.

Revenue

384M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AAON achieve an EPS of at least $0.29?

This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and could influence investor confidence.

What revenue growth can AAON report this quarter?

Revenue performance will indicate market demand and the company's ability to capitalize on opportunities in the HVAC sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate AAON's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and capitalize on energy efficiency trends, which could lead to stronger-than-expected performance.

Supporting Evidence

Recent insider selling may indicate a lack of confidence in the company's near-term performance, contrasting with the bullish consensus.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

AAON's recent earnings history shows a mixed track record, indicating that surprises are possible.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether AAON can maintain its growth trajectory amid economic challenges and supply chain issues.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.24 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.51%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.6% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.3%

30d HV

58.7%

Calls (114K)P/C Ratio: 0.10Puts (2K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.4M

14,804 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.4M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 5 open-market trades

Chief Administration OfficerKidwell Casey
$470,250.00

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.48%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -8.43%, raising concerns about its future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on supply chain improvements and their impact on production timelines.
2Insights into customer demand trends for HVAC products in the current economic climate.
3Management's commentary on cost management and pricing strategies.
4Details on any new product launches or innovations in energy efficiency.
5Guidance on future quarters and how the company plans to navigate market challenges.