Industrials·Building Products·$8.2B
AAON Inc. is a leading manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, primarily serving the commercial and industrial sectors....
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for AAON's products in the current economic climate.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
50%
Avg EPS Surprise
-4.62%
Avg Stock Reaction
-2.97%
In Q4 2025, AAON reported an EPS of $0.39, which was below the expected $0.45, resulting in a negative surprise of 12.75%. The stock reacted positively the following day, increasing by 3.49%.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect AAON to report an EPS of $0.29 and revenue of $384 million for Q1 2026, reflecting cautious optimism amid market fluctuations.
Bull Case
If AAON exceeds earnings expectations, it could indicate strong demand for its HVAC products, potentially driving the stock higher as investors gain confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses its earnings targets, it may signal ongoing challenges in the market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.
EPS
$0.29Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$384MRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for AAON's products in the current economic climate.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed $0.29, and by how much?
A strong EPS could indicate robust operational performance and market demand, which would be crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the $384 million consensus?
Revenue performance will shed light on the company's sales trends and market position, influencing future growth expectations.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus is underestimating the potential for AAON to exceed revenue expectations due to recent increases in demand for energy-efficient HVAC systems.
Supporting Evidence
Recent trends in the building products sector show a growing focus on energy efficiency, which AAON is well-positioned to capitalize on.
The company has historically shown resilience in demand even during economic downturns, suggesting it may outperform current expectations.
Key Risk
If revenue exceeds $400 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of growth prospects.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching AAON's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations, especially after recent mixed results.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.32 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.25 would indicate significant challenges in revenue generation and cost management.
Implied Move
±4.2%
Currently, there is no options market data available to provide additional insights into investor sentiment.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.48%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss earnings expectations, history indicates a likely decline of about 8.43%, reflecting investor disappointment.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE C Class B
May 4, 2026