Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$0.48
EPS est.
$0.31
EPS surprise
+53.35%
1-day move
+31.49%
AAON's strong earnings per share performance significantly exceeded expectations, resulting in a 31.49% increase in stock price. The lack of revenue data leaves some uncertainty, but the EPS beat indicates strong operational performance. Investors reacted positively, likely anticipating continued growth based on these results.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.48 | $0.29 | +53.35% |
| Revenue | — | $384M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Operating in the industrials sector, the company plays a crucial role in the building products industry, focusing on sustainability and energy efficiency, which are increasingly important themes in today's market.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, AAON reported an EPS of $0.39, falling short of the expected $0.45, leading to a 3.49% increase in stock price the following day. The company has shown mixed performance in recent quarters, with significant surprises in both directions.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.70%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.93%
Analysts expect AAON to report an EPS of $0.29 and revenue of $384 million for Q1-2026. The market is closely watching how the company navigates ongoing supply chain challenges and demand fluctuations.
Bull case
If AAON can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it may signal robust demand for its products, leading to positive investor sentiment.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market competitiveness, potentially leading to a decline in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.29Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.
Revenue
384MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will AAON achieve an EPS of at least $0.29?
This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and could influence investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue growth can AAON report this quarter?
Revenue performance will indicate market demand and the company's ability to capitalize on opportunities in the HVAC sector.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.76
Est. Rev
$192M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate AAON's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and capitalize on energy efficiency trends, which could lead to stronger-than-expected performance.
Supporting evidence
Recent insider selling may indicate a lack of confidence in the company's near-term performance, contrasting with the bullish consensus.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.
AAON's recent earnings history shows a mixed track record, indicating that surprises are possible.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether AAON can maintain its growth trajectory amid economic challenges and supply chain issues.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.24 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and market position.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±17.51%
Historical Avg
±11.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±18.6% while AAON has averaged ±11.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.3%
30d HV
58.7%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
85.57%
of float
Insider
16.73%
of float
Holders
631
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,686,241 sh · $582.6M
8.11%
1.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.48%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -8.43%, raising concerns about its future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Wellington Management Group, LLP
5,772,476 sh · $503.0M
7.00%
-27.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,121,771 sh · $272.0M
3.79%
0.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,938,836 sh · $256.1M
3.56%
1.1%
State Street Corporation
2,625,540 sh · $228.8M
3.18%
27.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.