Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.33
Est. revenue
$18.9B
Implied move
±6.7%
EPS beat rate
88%
Albertsons Companies, Inc. is a major player in the food retail sector, operating supermarkets and grocery stores across the United States. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a crucial role in consumer staples, particularly as inflation and changing consumer preferences impact grocery shopping habits.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Albertsons reported an EPS of $0.42, falling short of the expected $0.52, leading to a significant drop in stock price the following day. The company has faced challenges in maintaining revenue growth amid competitive pressures.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+11.87%
Avg 1-day reaction
-3.47%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Albertsons' upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. The consensus estimates suggest a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter.
Bull case
If Albertsons can exceed EPS expectations, it may indicate stronger operational efficiency and consumer demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses its EPS and revenue targets again, it could signal ongoing struggles in a competitive market, leading to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.33Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and sales.
Revenue
18.9BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and is critical for understanding market demand and growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.33?
A beat on EPS could indicate improved cost management and consumer demand, which are critical for investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue expectations compared to the consensus of $18.9 billion?
Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and competitive positioning, impacting future growth prospects.
—
Est. EPS
$2.62
Est. Rev
$23.7B
Impl. Move
±4.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Albertsons to recover from its recent performance, as operational efficiencies could improve margins despite competitive pressures.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 6.68% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not fully reflect the company's potential for a rebound.
Historical data shows that Albertsons has an 88% EPS beat rate, suggesting a higher likelihood of exceeding expectations.
Key risk
If revenue comes in significantly above $19.1 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report is critical as it follows a disappointing Q1-2026, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.36 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.29 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.68%
Historical Avg
±7.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility based on the results.
Options are pricing ±6.7% while ACI has averaged ±7.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
34.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.45%
of float
Insider
1.20%
of float
Holders
584
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Cerberus Capital Management, L.P.
151,818,680 sh · $1.8B
31.28%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Albertsons beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 2.5% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a significant drop, with historical patterns indicating an average decline of around 21.64% following such outcomes.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
43,050,858 sh · $505.4M
8.87%
3.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
18,483,179 sh · $217.0M
3.81%
1.7%
NORGES BANK
17,091,758 sh · $200.7M
3.52%
-24.4%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
16,125,936 sh · $189.3M
3.32%
7.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.