Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Est. EPS
$2.50
Est. revenue
$25.3B
Implied move
±3.9%
EPS beat rate
100%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a leading health care company that develops pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer health products. With a market cap of $623 billion, it plays a crucial role in the health care sector, addressing global health needs and contributing to advancements in medical science.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Johnson & Johnson reported an EPS of $2.90, beating estimates by 1.90%. However, the stock price fell by 2.69% the following day, indicating some market disappointment despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+3.55%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.43%
Analysts expect Johnson & Johnson to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.50 and revenue of $25.3 billion. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, which could influence investor sentiment.
Bull case
If JNJ exceeds the EPS estimate, it could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction, especially given its history of earnings surprises.
Bear case
Conversely, if JNJ falls short of expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to a negative market reaction, particularly given the recent stock price drop.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$2.50Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$25.3BTotal revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will JNJ's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.50?
A beat on EPS could solidify investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction, especially given the company's history of surpassing estimates.
Q2
What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and market demand?
Insights into revenue growth and market demand will be crucial for understanding the company's future prospects and could impact investor sentiment significantly.
—
Est. EPS
$0.33
Est. Rev
$18.9B
Impl. Move
±7.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating JNJ's ability to exceed EPS expectations due to its strong product pipeline and market position, which could lead to a larger-than-expected earnings surprise.
Supporting evidence
JNJ has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, achieving a 100% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect significant volatility.
Recent insider selling may not reflect the company's long-term prospects, as management has historically focused on growth.
Key risk
If JNJ's revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current consensus view.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on JNJ's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations and provide positive insights into revenue growth.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.60 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong financial performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.40 would support the bear case and raise concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.9%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.9% around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect some volatility.
Options are pricing a 3.9% move, while the stock has averaged only 1.7% over the last eight quarters, indicating a rich setup.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
17.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of -0.6% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
76.73%
of float
Insider
0.05%
of float
Holders
5,795
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
212,098,264 sh · $54.8B
8.80%
-0.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If JNJ beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.43% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 0.48% on the day.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
7
2 buys·5 sells
Members
4
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$7,007.00–$105,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
157,226,374 sh · $40.6B
6.52%
0.4%
State Street Corporation
133,776,025 sh · $34.6B
5.55%
0.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
64,370,816 sh · $16.6B
2.67%
1.4%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
59,086,417 sh · $15.3B
2.45%
-0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
2 trades
Net buying
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 8, 2026 · disclosed Oct 5, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 27, 2026 · disclosed Sep 12, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 20, 2026 · disclosed Sep 11, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 29, 2026 · disclosed Jul 15, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.