Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Est. EPS
$1.21
Est. revenue
$182M
Implied move
±10.9%
EPS beat rate
50%
FB Financial Corporation operates in the regional banking sector, providing a range of financial services to individuals and businesses. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supporting local economies and is influenced by trends in consumer spending and interest rates.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, FBK reported an EPS of $1.14, matching analyst expectations but showing a slight decline in stock price the following day. The company continues to navigate a competitive banking landscape while maintaining steady performance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.19%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.16%
Analysts expect FB Financial to report a stable quarter with EPS around $1.21 and revenue of $182 million. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth or challenges in the regional banking sector.
Bull case
If FBK exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its services and improved market conditions.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or reports stagnant revenue, it may raise concerns about its competitiveness and overall economic conditions.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$1.21EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$182MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's ability to generate sales and grow its business.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will FBK's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.21?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and market confidence, while a miss could raise concerns about operational challenges.
Q2
What is the revenue growth outlook compared to the expected $182 million?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand and compete effectively in the regional banking sector.
—
Est. EPS
$0.33
Est. Rev
$18.9B
Impl. Move
±7.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate FBK's ability to outperform due to its strong local market presence and customer loyalty, which could drive better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
FBK has a history of surprising analysts with better-than-expected EPS, as seen in previous quarters.
Options pricing suggests a higher volatility expectation, indicating that traders anticipate significant movement based on upcoming results.
Key risk
If revenue growth surpasses $185 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to navigate economic challenges and maintain growth.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.25 or higher would confirm strong financial performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.17 would indicate potential weaknesses in profitability and market conditions.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.95%
Historical Avg
±2.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.9% while FBK has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
17.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.1%, with a raw directional average of +0.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
83.21%
of float
Insider
2.09%
of float
Holders
390
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,297,957 sh · $329.1M
12.60%
2.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If FBK beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.99%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors await further guidance, reflecting uncertainty in the market.
Miss
A miss could result in a stock decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around +1.32% following such outcomes.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.
3,874,468 sh · $202.5M
7.75%
0.2%
State Street Corporation
2,449,893 sh · $128.0M
4.90%
8.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,152,443 sh · $112.5M
4.31%
14.2%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
2,032,178 sh · $106.2M
4.07%
1.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded May 29, 2026 · disclosed Jun 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.