Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$0.61
EPS est.
$0.29
EPS surprise
+110.34%
1-day move
+7.81%
ACI Worldwide's strong EPS performance, significantly exceeding expectations, led to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising 7.81%. However, the lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the overall business outlook. Investors may be encouraged by the earnings beat but will likely seek more information in future reports.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.61 | $0.50 | +110.34% |
| Revenue | — | $410M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on application software that facilitates electronic payments and transaction processing. As digital payments continue to grow, ACIW plays a crucial role in helping businesses manage their payment systems efficiently and securely.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, ACIW reported an EPS of $0.90, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock fell 4.05% the following day, indicating some market disappointment despite the earnings match.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+72.69%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.60%
Analysts expect ACIW to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.50 and revenue of $410M. The market is keenly watching for any signs of growth in digital payment solutions.
Bull case
If ACIW beats expectations, it could signal strong demand for its services, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction and increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if ACIW fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth prospects in a competitive market, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.50EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$410MRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is vital for future growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ACIW's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.50?
A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's growth narrative and could lead to a positive market reaction.
Q2
What are the revenue growth prospects in the digital payments sector?
Understanding revenue growth will indicate how well ACIW is adapting to market demands and competition.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±6.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate ACIW's ability to leverage new digital payment trends, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
ACI Worldwide has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting a potential for continued outperformance.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
Insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future performance.
Key risk
If ACIW's revenue growth exceeds $420M, it could challenge the current market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect ACIW's ability to capitalize on the growing digital payments market.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.55 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.45 would raise concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.3%
Historical Avg
±6.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.5% while ACIW has averaged ±6.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
29.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
106.16%
of float
Insider
1.24%
of float
Holders
527
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
16,381,401 sh · $829.7M
16.23%
-3.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ACIW beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.29%, confirming a strong growth outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of 11.70% following disappointing results.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,112,057 sh · $410.9M
8.04%
0.7%
Franklin Resources, Inc.
6,695,164 sh · $339.1M
6.63%
1.2%
FMR, LLC
6,545,875 sh · $331.5M
6.48%
202.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
4,586,998 sh · $232.3M
4.54%
1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.