Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.13
EPS est.
$-0.15
EPS surprise
+16.13%
1-day move
-4.97%
Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a smaller-than-expected loss per share, which is a positive surprise for investors. However, the stock fell nearly 5% in reaction, likely due to the lack of revenue information and guidance. Investors may be concerned about the company's future performance without clear direction or updates from management.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.13 | $-0.16 | +16.13% |
| Revenue | N/A | $61M | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation is a health care company focused on using its proprietary technology to analyze the immune system. This is important as it plays a role in developing diagnostics and therapeutics for various diseases, including cancer and autoimmune disorders. With a market cap of $2 billion, the company operates in the life sciences tools and services sector, which is increasingly relevant in today's health landscape.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Adaptive Biotechnologies reported an EPS of $-0.09, which was significantly better than the expected $-0.19. However, revenue details were not disclosed, and the stock fell 4.80% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+26.08%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.61%
Analysts expect Adaptive Biotechnologies to report a loss of $0.16 per share on revenues of $61 million. Investors will be closely watching for any surprises in these figures, especially given the company's recent performance.
Bull case
If the company beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal improving operational efficiency and market demand for its products.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses on both EPS and revenue, it could raise concerns about its financial health and growth prospects, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.16Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
$61MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.16?
A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's ability to manage costs effectively and could boost investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue growth can we expect relative to the consensus of $61 million?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's market position and future prospects, especially in a competitive industry.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the company's ability to leverage its technology for new product offerings, which could drive higher revenue than expected.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting potential for another surprise.
The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility that may not align with current consensus views.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $64 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Adaptive Biotechnologies can sustain its previous performance and capitalize on its growth opportunities.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of better than $-0.15 and revenue exceeding $64 million would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-0.20 and revenue below $55 million would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±35.96%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±22.4% while ADPT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.6%
30d HV
74.6%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$2.9M
104,522 sh
3 insiders
Net
$2.9M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 14 open-market trades
$2.0M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
99.50%
of float
Insider
1.29%
of float
Holders
423
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Viking Global Investors, L.P.
29,993,708 sh · $788.2M
18.79%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If the company beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.81% on average, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a drop, with historical patterns indicating a potential decline of around 2.41%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$757,696.66
Net selling
$193,320.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
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11,881 sh
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Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackrock Inc.
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9.49%
13.8%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
6,403,587 sh · $168.3M
4.01%
5.1%
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.