Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±10.4%
EPS beat rate
13%
First Majestic Silver Corp. is a mining company focused on silver production, primarily in Mexico. As a player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to silver prices, which can be influenced by economic conditions and investor demand for precious metals.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, First Majestic reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.21, which was below the expected $0.25, resulting in a 16% surprise to the downside. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.09% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-38.00%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.64%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about First Majestic's upcoming earnings, particularly given the recent trends in silver prices. However, the company's history of missing earnings estimates raises concerns.
Bull case
If the company reports higher silver production and improved margins due to favorable silver prices, it could lead to a significant stock rally.
Bear case
Conversely, if production costs rise or silver prices fall, the company may report disappointing earnings, leading to a negative market reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the reported silver production figures for Q3-2026?
Production levels are crucial for assessing the company's ability to meet demand and generate revenue.
Q2
How have production costs changed compared to previous quarters?
Understanding cost trends will help investors gauge profit margins and overall financial health.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in silver prices, which could positively impact First Majestic's earnings this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Silver prices have shown signs of recovery, which could lead to better margins.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential volatility.
The recent trend of production misses may not reflect the company's current operational improvements.
Key risk
If silver prices rise above $25 per ounce, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The debate centers around how effectively First Majestic can manage production costs while capitalizing on silver price movements.
Bull confirmed if
A silver production increase of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A significant rise in production costs beyond $15 per ounce would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.36%
Historical Avg
±5.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.4% while AG has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
52.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials
Fade rate: 9 of 30 (30%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 21 of 30 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of +1.4% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
53.03%
of float
Insider
1.09%
of float
Holders
503
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Van Eck Associates Corporation
35,668,213 sh · $593.9M
7.23%
-6.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If First Majestic beats earnings expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 9.65%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted stock movement, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the silver market.
Miss
If the company misses earnings again, the stock could fall by an average of 0.64%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Tidal Investments LLC
19,678,915 sh · $327.7M
3.99%
-6.6%
Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings Ltd.
16,363,904 sh · $272.5M
3.32%
-11.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
13,502,343 sh · $224.8M
2.74%
1.9%
Jupiter Asset Management Limited
10,228,905 sh · $170.3M
2.07%
17.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.