Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.87
Est. revenue
$2.3B
Implied move
±5.3%
EPS beat rate
75%
AGCO Corporation is a leading manufacturer of agricultural and farm machinery, serving farmers and agricultural businesses worldwide. As part of the industrials sector, AGCO plays a crucial role in enhancing agricultural productivity through innovative equipment and technology.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, AGCO reported an EPS of $1.43, which was below the expected $1.54, resulting in a negative surprise of 6.9%. Following this, the stock dropped 7.78% the next day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+205.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.76%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AGCO's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent miss in the previous quarter has raised concerns.
Bull case
If AGCO can exceed the EPS estimate of $0.87, it could signal strong demand and effective cost management, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if AGCO fails to meet expectations again, it may indicate deeper issues in sales or cost control, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.87Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well AGCO is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$2.3BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its products in the agricultural sector.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will AGCO's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.87?
A beat on EPS could restore investor confidence after the recent miss and indicate strong operational performance.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the agricultural machinery sector?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge demand for AGCO's products and overall market health.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±10.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating AGCO's ability to rebound from recent challenges, especially given the strong demand signals in the agricultural sector.
Supporting evidence
AGCO's historical EPS beat rate is 75%, suggesting a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.
The options market is pricing a larger move than AGCO's average historical volatility, indicating potential for a surprise.
Recent insider selling may not reflect a lack of confidence but rather strategic financial management.
Key risk
If AGCO reports an EPS significantly below $0.83, it could validate bearish sentiment and lead to a sell-off.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching AGCO's ability to recover from a recent earnings miss and the overall health of the agricultural sector.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.90 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.83 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in sales or profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.87%
Historical Avg
±6.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.3% while AGCO has averaged ±6.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
43.5%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$100,710.00
1,000 sh
1 insider
Sold
$57.7M
499,622 sh
4 insiders
Net
$57.6M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 7 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
97.48%
of float
Insider
17.98%
of float
Holders
705
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,863,890 sh · $640.0M
8.37%
1.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AGCO beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.6% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 7.8% based on historical patterns, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$56.8M
Net selling
$337,430.00
Net selling
$337,869.00
Net selling
$200,480.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Aug 5, 2026 · @ $115.33
360,163 sh
$41.5M
Aug 5, 2026 · @ $115.33
132,255 sh
$15.3M
Sep 4, 2026 · @ $129.75
2,604 sh
$337,869.00
Aug 6, 2026 · @ $102.27
2,000 sh
$204,540.00
Sep 15, 2026 · @ $125.30
1,600 sh
$200,480.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
5,522,670 sh · $602.8M
7.89%
6.0%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
3,604,608 sh · $393.4M
5.15%
1.9%
Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
2,999,252 sh · $327.4M
4.28%
4.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,901,494 sh · $316.7M
4.14%
4.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.