Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$2.50
EPS est.
$1.50
EPS surprise
+66.67%
1-day move
+0.51%
Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a strong earnings per share that significantly exceeded expectations, which contributed to a slight increase in the stock price. However, there was no revenue reported, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. The lack of guidance and management commentary may leave investors cautious moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.50 | $1.63 | +66.67% |
| Revenue | N/A | $209M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) operates in the financial sector, specifically in property and casualty insurance. The company provides credit protection and financial guarantees, which are crucial for investors and municipalities looking to secure funding and manage risk. As the economy evolves, the demand for such financial services can be influenced by interest rates and market stability.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Assured Guaranty reported an EPS of $2.32, significantly exceeding expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.46% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+23.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.27%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AGO's upcoming earnings, expecting a solid performance based on past results. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of high EPS figures.
Bull case
If AGO meets or exceeds the consensus EPS of $1.63, it could signal strong operational efficiency and continued demand for its services, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings, it may raise concerns about its ability to maintain profitability in a changing economic environment.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
1.63Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its expenses relative to its revenue.
Revenue
209MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.63?
This figure is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could influence investor confidence.
Q2
What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and market conditions?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's performance and outlook in a competitive landscape.
—
Est. EPS
$0.97
Est. Rev
$754M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate AGO's ability to generate consistent earnings due to its strong historical performance and recent market conditions.
Supporting evidence
AGO has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% success rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.
Recent strong performance in prior quarters suggests that the company may continue to outperform expectations.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in below $1.50, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether AGO can sustain its recent earnings growth amid potential economic headwinds.
Bull confirmed if
Reporting an EPS of $1.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.50 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.79%
Historical Avg
±0.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.8% while AGO has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
18.1%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$5.2M
209,387.822 sh
1 insider
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$5.2M
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.81%
of float
Insider
6.87%
of float
Holders
489
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,787,502 sh · $400.1M
13.16%
0.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AGO beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.51%, confirming strong operational health.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about -0.78%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future earnings.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$5.2M
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Jul 22, 2026 · @ $24.83
209,387.822 sh
$5.2M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,965,491 sh · $274.2M
9.02%
1.0%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
3,027,991 sh · $209.4M
6.89%
0.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,916,655 sh · $132.5M
4.36%
-2.5%
State Street Corporation
1,586,416 sh · $109.7M
3.61%
0.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.