Financials·Property & Casualty Insurance·$3.7B
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) operates in the financial sector, specifically in property and casualty insurance. The company provides financial guarantees for municipal bonds and structured finance products, which helps reduce risk for investors and supports public infrastructure projects.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.
Revenue
Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall business performance and growth potential.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
2Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.14%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.03%
In Q4-2025, Assured Guaranty reported an EPS of $2.32, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. This strong performance was driven by favorable market conditions and effective risk management.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Assured Guaranty to report solid earnings, with consensus estimates showing a moderate increase in EPS and revenue. Investors will be watching closely for any signs of growth in the insurance market.
Bull Case
If the company beats EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and increased demand for their insurance products, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the earnings miss expectations, it may raise concerns about the company's growth prospects and risk management, leading to a negative market reaction.
EPS
$1.63Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.
Revenue
$209MTotal revenue gives insight into the company's overall business performance and growth potential.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.63?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong underlying performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $209M?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand and maintain profitability in a competitive market.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Assured Guaranty to capitalize on increased municipal bond issuance, which could drive higher revenue than expected.
Supporting Evidence
Recent trends in municipal financing indicate a surge in demand for bond insurance.
The company's strong track record of managing risk positions it well to outperform in a favorable market.
Analysts may not fully account for the impact of recent regulatory changes that could benefit Assured Guaranty's offerings.
Key Risk
If the company reports revenue significantly above $232M, it could challenge the current consensus outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely scrutinized as it could set the tone for the company's growth trajectory in a challenging economic environment.
Bull Confirmed If
Earnings exceeding $1.76 per share would confirm strong operational performance and growth potential.
Bear Confirmed If
Earnings falling below $1.50 per share would raise concerns about the company's future prospects.
Implied Move
±4.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move for the stock following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor interest and uncertainty.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Assured Guaranty beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.51%, confirming strong operational health.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.78%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.
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PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE C Class B
May 4, 2026