Equity Profile

AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance$3.3B

May7Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.51%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.50	$1.63	+66.67%
Revenue	N/A	$209M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.51%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.50	$1.63	+66.67%
Revenue	N/A	$209M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a strong earnings per share that significantly exceeded expectations, which contributed to a slight increase in the stock price. However, there was no revenue reported, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. The lack of guidance and management commentary may leave investors cautious moving forward.

Company Snapshot

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) operates in the financial sector, specifically in property and casualty insurance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its expenses relative to its revenue.

1.63

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

209M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) operates in the financial sector, specifically in property and casualty insurance. The company provides credit protection and financial guarantees, which are crucial for investors and municipalities looking to secure funding and manage risk. As the economy evolves, the demand for such financial services can be influenced by interest rates and market stability.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+26.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Assured Guaranty reported an EPS of $2.32, significantly exceeding expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.46% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AGO's upcoming earnings, expecting a solid performance based on past results. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of high EPS figures.

Bull Case

If AGO meets or exceeds the consensus EPS of $1.63, it could signal strong operational efficiency and continued demand for its services, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings, it may raise concerns about its ability to maintain profitability in a changing economic environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

1.63

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its expenses relative to its revenue.

Revenue

209M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.63?

This figure is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could influence investor confidence.

What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and market conditions?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's performance and outlook in a competitive landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate AGO's ability to generate consistent earnings due to its strong historical performance and recent market conditions.

Supporting Evidence

AGO has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% success rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.

Recent strong performance in prior quarters suggests that the company may continue to outperform expectations.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $1.50, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether AGO can sustain its recent earnings growth amid potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS of $1.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.79%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while AGO has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

18.1%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AGO beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.51%, confirming strong operational health.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -0.78%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future earnings.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth trends and market demand for insurance products.
2Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the insurance sector.
3Details on any new initiatives or strategies to enhance profitability.
4Insights into claims experience and risk management practices.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the property and casualty insurance market.

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Company Snapshot

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) operates in the financial sector, specifically in property and casualty insurance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its expenses relative to its revenue.

1.63

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

209M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+26.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Assured Guaranty reported an EPS of $2.32, significantly exceeding expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.46% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AGO's upcoming earnings, expecting a solid performance based on past results. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of high EPS figures.

Bull Case

If AGO meets or exceeds the consensus EPS of $1.63, it could signal strong operational efficiency and continued demand for its services, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings, it may raise concerns about its ability to maintain profitability in a changing economic environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

1.63

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its expenses relative to its revenue.

Revenue

209M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.63?

This figure is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could influence investor confidence.

What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and market conditions?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's performance and outlook in a competitive landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate AGO's ability to generate consistent earnings due to its strong historical performance and recent market conditions.

Supporting Evidence

AGO has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% success rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.

Recent strong performance in prior quarters suggests that the company may continue to outperform expectations.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $1.50, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether AGO can sustain its recent earnings growth amid potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS of $1.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.79%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while AGO has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

18.1%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AGO beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.51%, confirming strong operational health.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -0.78%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future earnings.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth trends and market demand for insurance products.
2Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the insurance sector.
3Details on any new initiatives or strategies to enhance profitability.
4Insights into claims experience and risk management practices.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the property and casualty insurance market.