Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
$0.77
EPS est.
$0.53
EPS surprise
+44.47%
1-day move
-0.65%
Alarm.com reported a strong earnings performance with a notable EPS beat, but the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.65%. The increase in SaaS and license revenue, along with a rise in adjusted EBITDA, indicates solid operational growth. However, the stock's decline may reflect investor caution despite the positive results and raised guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.77 | N/A | +44.47% |
| SaaS and License Revenue | $188.8 million | N/A | N/A |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $57.7 million | N/A | N/A |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 20.8% | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed confidence in the company's performance, highlighting growth in key segments. They noted the successful launch of a new product targeting a significant market.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance for revenue, EBITDA, and EPS due to strong performance across commercial and EnergyHub segments.
The company surpassed 1 million active subscriber accounts in its international business.
—
Est. EPS
$1.48
Est. Rev
$3.3B
Impl. Move
±16.9%
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides technology solutions for security and automation in homes and businesses. As a player in the Information Technology sector, the company focuses on application software that enhances consumer safety and convenience, which is increasingly important in today's connected world.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.65, exceeding expectations by 39.19%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.43% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+51.46%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.11%
Overall, investors are optimistic about Alarm.com's upcoming earnings, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific revenue guidance may create uncertainty.
Bull case
If Alarm.com continues its trend of exceeding EPS expectations, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to provide clear revenue guidance or if customer growth stagnates, it could lead to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Expected to be around $0.65.EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue Growth
Not available.Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and attract new customers.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this will be a crucial indicator of ongoing performance and market confidence.
Q2
What insights can management provide regarding customer growth and revenue expectations?
Understanding customer growth will help gauge the company's market position and potential for future revenue increases.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Alarm.com's ability to sustain its growth trajectory despite economic pressures, as its recent EPS surprises indicate strong underlying demand.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a stronger operational performance than anticipated.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting uncertainty that may not align with the company's historical performance.
Key risk
If customer growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment in the market.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on whether Alarm.com can maintain its growth trajectory and profitability amidst market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.60 would raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±17.23%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±17.2% while ALRM has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
43.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.83%
of float
Insider
5.59%
of float
Holders
451
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
9,492,105 sh · $519.0M
19.19%
3.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.43%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but lack clarity on future growth, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await more information.
Miss
A disappointing EPS could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop similar to past misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Customer Growth
Not available.An increase in customer numbers can indicate strong demand for Alarm.com's services and products.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
4,035,026 sh · $220.6M
8.16%
2.0%
Disciplined Growth Investors, Inc.
3,585,614 sh · $196.1M
7.25%
9.7%
Bank of Montreal /CAN/
3,455,190 sh · $188.9M
6.99%
30.0%
State Street Corporation
2,188,123 sh · $119.6M
4.42%
7.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.