Equity Profile

ALRM

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$2.2B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides technology solutions for smart security and home automation, helping consumers manage their homes remotely....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its customer base and market share, which is crucial for future success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALRM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides technology solutions for smart security and home automation, helping consumers manage their homes remotely. As a player in the Information Technology sector, the company is positioned in a growing market driven by increasing demand for smart home solutions and security applications.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+56.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.65, exceeding expectations by 39.19%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing product offerings in smart home technology.
Commitment to improving customer service and support.
Plans to expand market reach through strategic partnerships.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Alarm.com's upcoming earnings, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates in the past.

Bull Case

If the company continues its trend of strong EPS surprises, it could signal robust demand for its products and services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.65?

Given the company's strong history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be critical in shaping investor sentiment.

What is the current customer retention rate and how does it compare to previous quarters?

This metric is vital for understanding the company's ability to maintain its customer base and drive future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Alarm.com to exceed EPS expectations again this quarter, given its consistent track record.

Supporting Evidence

The company has beaten EPS estimates in every quarter for the past two years.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility.

Historical performance shows that the stock often reacts positively to earnings beats.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $0.60, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around Alarm.com's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amid increasing competition in the smart home market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.60 could confirm the bear case, raising concerns about growth and customer retention.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.23%

Historical Avg

±1.81%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move for Alarm.com following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing a 17.23% move, while the stock has averaged only 1.81% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

43.2%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.43%, confirming strong demand for its offerings.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.81%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches in the smart home space.
2Details on customer acquisition strategies and retention rates.
3Insights into market trends and competitive landscape.
4Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on partnerships or collaborations that could drive growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Danaos Corporation

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides technology solutions for smart security and home automation, helping consumers manage their homes remotely....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help gauge its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its customer base and market share, which is crucial for future success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALRM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+56.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.65, exceeding expectations by 39.19%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing product offerings in smart home technology.
Commitment to improving customer service and support.
Plans to expand market reach through strategic partnerships.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Alarm.com's upcoming earnings, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates in the past.

Bull Case

If the company continues its trend of strong EPS surprises, it could signal robust demand for its products and services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.65?

Given the company's strong history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be critical in shaping investor sentiment.

What is the current customer retention rate and how does it compare to previous quarters?

This metric is vital for understanding the company's ability to maintain its customer base and drive future revenue.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Alarm.com to exceed EPS expectations again this quarter, given its consistent track record.

Supporting Evidence

The company has beaten EPS estimates in every quarter for the past two years.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility.

Historical performance shows that the stock often reacts positively to earnings beats.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $0.60, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around Alarm.com's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amid increasing competition in the smart home market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.60 could confirm the bear case, raising concerns about growth and customer retention.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.23%

Historical Avg

±1.81%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move for Alarm.com following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing a 17.23% move, while the stock has averaged only 1.81% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

43.2%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.43%, confirming strong demand for its offerings.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.81%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches in the smart home space.
2Details on customer acquisition strategies and retention rates.
3Insights into market trends and competitive landscape.
4Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on partnerships or collaborations that could drive growth.