Equity Profile

ALRM

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$2.6B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides technology solutions for security and automation in homes and businesses....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.65

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales in a competitive market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALRM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides technology solutions for security and automation in homes and businesses. As part of the Information Technology sector, it plays a crucial role in the growing demand for smart home technologies and integrated security systems.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+56.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.65, exceeding expectations by 39.19%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on expanding product offerings.
Commitment to enhancing customer service and support.
Plans to invest in marketing to drive customer acquisition.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, especially given the company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Alarm.com continues its trend of strong earnings surprises, it could signal robust demand for its products and services, leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.65

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales in a competitive market.

Customer Growth

N/A

Tracking the number of new customers is vital as it reflects the company's market penetration and demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to the previous quarter?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this will be a key indicator of ongoing financial health and operational efficiency.

What is the outlook for customer growth in the upcoming quarters?

Understanding customer growth will provide insights into the company's market position and future revenue potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Alarm.com's ability to sustain its growth trajectory, particularly in customer acquisition and product innovation.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, which may reflect an overreaction to potential risks.

Key Risk

If customer growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the company's future prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently weighing the potential for continued growth against the risks of a slowdown in demand for smart home technologies.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.60 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.23%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.2% while ALRM has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

43.2%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.43%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting a potential drop of around 1.81%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Insights into customer acquisition strategies and success rates.
3Management's commentary on market trends and competitive landscape.
4Guidance on future earnings and revenue expectations.
5Any changes in operational costs or efficiencies.

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Company Snapshot

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides technology solutions for security and automation in homes and businesses....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.65

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales in a competitive market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALRM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+56.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.65, exceeding expectations by 39.19%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on expanding product offerings.
Commitment to enhancing customer service and support.
Plans to invest in marketing to drive customer acquisition.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, especially given the company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Alarm.com continues its trend of strong earnings surprises, it could signal robust demand for its products and services, leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.65

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales in a competitive market.

Customer Growth

N/A

Tracking the number of new customers is vital as it reflects the company's market penetration and demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to the previous quarter?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this will be a key indicator of ongoing financial health and operational efficiency.

What is the outlook for customer growth in the upcoming quarters?

Understanding customer growth will provide insights into the company's market position and future revenue potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Alarm.com's ability to sustain its growth trajectory, particularly in customer acquisition and product innovation.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, which may reflect an overreaction to potential risks.

Key Risk

If customer growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the company's future prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently weighing the potential for continued growth against the risks of a slowdown in demand for smart home technologies.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.60 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.23%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.2% while ALRM has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

43.2%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 0.25Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.43%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting a potential drop of around 1.81%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Insights into customer acquisition strategies and success rates.
3Management's commentary on market trends and competitive landscape.
4Guidance on future earnings and revenue expectations.
5Any changes in operational costs or efficiencies.