Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.72
Est. revenue
$9.5B
Implied move
±8.7%
EPS beat rate
100%
Amphenol Corporation (APH) is a leading manufacturer of electronic components, specializing in connectors and interconnect systems. As a key player in the Information Technology sector, the company benefits from trends in automation, telecommunications, and consumer electronics, making it a significant contributor to the tech supply chain.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Amphenol reported an EPS of $1.35, significantly exceeding expectations by 13.73%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.49% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+14.15%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.97%
Analysts are generally optimistic about Amphenol's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters.
Bull case
If Amphenol delivers an EPS above the consensus and shows strong revenue growth, it could reinforce investor confidence and drive the stock price higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a decline in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.72EPS is a crucial indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.
Revenue
$9.5BRevenue growth indicates the company's sales performance and demand for its products, which is vital for assessing overall business health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Amphenol's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.72?
A beat on EPS would not only affirm the company's strong performance but could also signal robust demand in its key markets.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?
Management's outlook on revenue growth will be critical for assessing future performance and investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±10.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Amphenol's growth potential in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, where demand for electronic components is surging.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends show a significant increase in orders from Asia, which could boost revenue beyond consensus expectations.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are anticipating a surprise.
Amphenol's recent product innovations may not be fully reflected in current estimates, potentially leading to higher-than-expected sales.
Key risk
If revenue growth in Asia exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current consensus view.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing Amphenol's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amid potential economic headwinds.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.75 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $9.6B, would confirm a strong bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.70 or revenue falling short of $9.2B would validate bearish concerns.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.68%
Historical Avg
±5.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.7% while APH has averaged ±5.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
34.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors
Fade rate: 14 of 29 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 14 of 29 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of -2.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.70%
of float
Insider
0.53%
of float
Holders
3,089
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
202,504,076 sh · $17.7B
16.42%
-0.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Amphenol beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.97% on the following day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
A miss on EPS or revenue could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 1.97%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
3 buys·0 sells
Members
3
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
160,694,416 sh · $14.1B
13.03%
0.6%
FMR, LLC
141,138,010 sh · $12.4B
11.45%
-11.2%
State Street Corporation
118,985,896 sh · $10.4B
9.65%
3.6%
Capital International Investors
86,072,516 sh · $7.5B
6.98%
21.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
1 trade
Net buying
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 18, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 8, 2026 · disclosed Jul 12, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.