Equity Profile

ARES

Ares Management Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$33.7B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Management Corporation is a leading global alternative investment manager specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $34 billion, the company plays a crucial role in managing investments across various sectors, including private equity, credit, and real estate, which are vital for economic growth and investor returns.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ares is managing its investments.

1.27

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its asset management services.

1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Ares reported an EPS of $0.46, significantly below the expected $1.32, leading to a stock increase of 1.36% the following day despite the miss. This continues a trend of disappointing earnings relative to expectations.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ares to report an EPS of $1.27 and revenue of $1.1 billion for Q2 2026, reflecting cautious optimism after recent earnings misses. The market is closely watching how the company addresses its previous underperformance.

Bull Case

If Ares can exceed the consensus EPS estimate, it may indicate a recovery in its investment management performance, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss could further erode trust in management's ability to deliver consistent results, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

1.27

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ares is managing its investments.

Revenue

1.1B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its asset management services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ares achieve an EPS of at least $1.27 this quarter?

This figure is crucial as it will indicate whether the company is recovering from its recent earnings misses.

What factors contributed to the revenue expectations of $1.1 billion?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue will help investors gauge the company's performance and outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street is overly focused on recent earnings misses and may not fully appreciate the potential for a rebound in Ares' performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 17.63% move, indicating significant expectations for volatility.

Despite recent misses, Ares has shown resilience in prior quarters, with a positive reaction following some earnings disappointments.

Key Risk

If Ares can demonstrate a clear path to improved profitability, it could challenge the prevailing bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if Ares can regain investor confidence after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm a positive turnaround in performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would solidify concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.46%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

A report in line with expectations may lead to a muted reaction, as investors will look for management's commentary on future performance.

Miss

If Ares misses again, the stock could drop by about 4.05%, reflecting continued skepticism about its growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on investment strategies that may impact revenue growth.
2Management's commentary on market conditions affecting asset management.
3Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
4Details on client retention and new client acquisition rates.
5Any forward-looking statements regarding market outlook and growth opportunities.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ares is managing its investments.

1.27

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its asset management services.

1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ares can exceed the consensus EPS estimate, it may indicate a recovery in its investment management performance, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss could further erode trust in management's ability to deliver consistent results, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

1.27

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ares is managing its investments.

Revenue

1.1B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its asset management services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ares achieve an EPS of at least $1.27 this quarter?

This figure is crucial as it will indicate whether the company is recovering from its recent earnings misses.

What factors contributed to the revenue expectations of $1.1 billion?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue will help investors gauge the company's performance and outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street is overly focused on recent earnings misses and may not fully appreciate the potential for a rebound in Ares' performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 17.63% move, indicating significant expectations for volatility.

Despite recent misses, Ares has shown resilience in prior quarters, with a positive reaction following some earnings disappointments.

Key Risk

If Ares can demonstrate a clear path to improved profitability, it could challenge the prevailing bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if Ares can regain investor confidence after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm a positive turnaround in performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would solidify concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.46%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

A report in line with expectations may lead to a muted reaction, as investors will look for management's commentary on future performance.

Miss

If Ares misses again, the stock could drop by about 4.05%, reflecting continued skepticism about its growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on investment strategies that may impact revenue growth.
2Management's commentary on market conditions affecting asset management.
3Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
4Details on client retention and new client acquisition rates.
5Any forward-looking statements regarding market outlook and growth opportunities.