Equity Profile

ARES

Ares Management Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$28.9B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) is a leading global alternative investment manager that focuses on credit, private equity, and real estate. With a market cap of $29 billion, ARES plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in asset management, which has been influenced by trends in interest rates and economic recovery.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well ARES is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of assets that ARES manages, which is crucial for understanding the company's growth and revenue potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ARES reported an EPS of $0.46, significantly missing expectations of $1.32, which led to a modest stock increase of 1.36% the following day. The company has struggled with consistent earnings, showing a trend of missing estimates in recent quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for ARES are cautious, given the recent disappointing earnings reports and the lack of analyst estimates for the upcoming quarter. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in earnings and management's outlook.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on ARES demonstrating a strong rebound in earnings, possibly driven by improved market conditions and effective cost management, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the pessimistic side, continued earnings misses and weak revenue growth could signal deeper issues within the company, leading to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant misses in previous quarters, the EPS figure will be critical for assessing whether ARES is on a path to recovery.

How has AUM changed in the last quarter?

Changes in AUM will provide insight into investor confidence and the company's ability to attract and retain capital.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street is underestimating ARES's potential for a turnaround, as recent market conditions may have created temporary challenges rather than long-term issues.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect a significant change.

Despite recent misses, ARES has a solid foundation in asset management that could benefit from market recovery.

The lack of analyst estimates could mean that the Street is not fully capturing the potential for a rebound.

Key Risk

If AUM shows significant growth, it could challenge the negative sentiment and lead to a reassessment of ARES's value.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ARES can turn around its recent performance and regain investor trust.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would indicate a strong recovery and improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm ongoing struggles and potentially lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 17.63%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARES beats expectations with an EPS above $1.00, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.5% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If ARES misses expectations again, the stock could decline by approximately 4.05%, reflecting ongoing concerns about its performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AUM growth and investor sentiment.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into market conditions affecting asset management.
4Guidance on future earnings expectations.
5Responses to recent earnings misses and plans for improvement.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well ARES is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of assets that ARES manages, which is crucial for understanding the company's growth and revenue potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on ARES demonstrating a strong rebound in earnings, possibly driven by improved market conditions and effective cost management, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the pessimistic side, continued earnings misses and weak revenue growth could signal deeper issues within the company, leading to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant misses in previous quarters, the EPS figure will be critical for assessing whether ARES is on a path to recovery.

How has AUM changed in the last quarter?

Changes in AUM will provide insight into investor confidence and the company's ability to attract and retain capital.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street is underestimating ARES's potential for a turnaround, as recent market conditions may have created temporary challenges rather than long-term issues.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect a significant change.

Despite recent misses, ARES has a solid foundation in asset management that could benefit from market recovery.

The lack of analyst estimates could mean that the Street is not fully capturing the potential for a rebound.

Key Risk

If AUM shows significant growth, it could challenge the negative sentiment and lead to a reassessment of ARES's value.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ARES can turn around its recent performance and regain investor trust.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would indicate a strong recovery and improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm ongoing struggles and potentially lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 17.63%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARES beats expectations with an EPS above $1.00, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.5% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If ARES misses expectations again, the stock could decline by approximately 4.05%, reflecting ongoing concerns about its performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AUM growth and investor sentiment.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into market conditions affecting asset management.
4Guidance on future earnings expectations.
5Responses to recent earnings misses and plans for improvement.