Equity Profile

ARES

Ares Management Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$28.9B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Management Corporation is a leading global alternative investment manager focused on credit, private equity, and real estate. Operating in the financial sector, Ares plays a crucial role in asset management and investment strategies, which are vital for both institutional and retail investors seeking diversified portfolios.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors to gauge financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and attract new clients, which is essential for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Ares reported an EPS of $0.46, significantly missing estimates of $1.32, which raised concerns about its profitability. The stock reacted positively the next day, gaining 1.36%, despite the disappointing earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Ares Management's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially following recent earnings misses. Investors are keen to see if the company can stabilize its earnings and provide clearer guidance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on Ares demonstrating a strong recovery in EPS and revenue growth, potentially driven by a rebound in market conditions and increased AUM.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic outlook is based on continued earnings misses and a lack of growth in AUM, which could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?

Given the significant misses in recent quarters, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to assess Ares' recovery and profitability.

What is the current status of AUM and how does it reflect on future revenue potential?

AUM growth is critical for Ares' revenue generation, and any insights on this will be pivotal for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares' potential for a rebound in AUM and profitability, given the recent market conditions that favor alternative investments.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 17.63% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with Ares' historical performance.

The recent insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's recovery potential, which may not be reflected in current market sentiment.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift the narrative around Ares' earnings potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate revolves around whether Ares can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate growth in AUM and profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would reinforce the bear case and signal ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by about 3.5% on the day, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If Ares misses again, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.05%, which would raise further concerns about its growth trajectory.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AUM growth and its impact on revenue forecasts.
2Insights into the company's strategy for improving profitability in the current market environment.
3Management's commentary on market conditions and how they plan to navigate challenges.
4Details on any new investment strategies or products that could drive future growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent earnings misses and plans for recovery.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors to gauge financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and attract new clients, which is essential for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on Ares demonstrating a strong recovery in EPS and revenue growth, potentially driven by a rebound in market conditions and increased AUM.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic outlook is based on continued earnings misses and a lack of growth in AUM, which could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?

Given the significant misses in recent quarters, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to assess Ares' recovery and profitability.

What is the current status of AUM and how does it reflect on future revenue potential?

AUM growth is critical for Ares' revenue generation, and any insights on this will be pivotal for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares' potential for a rebound in AUM and profitability, given the recent market conditions that favor alternative investments.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 17.63% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with Ares' historical performance.

The recent insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's recovery potential, which may not be reflected in current market sentiment.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift the narrative around Ares' earnings potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate revolves around whether Ares can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate growth in AUM and profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would reinforce the bear case and signal ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by about 3.5% on the day, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If Ares misses again, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.05%, which would raise further concerns about its growth trajectory.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AUM growth and its impact on revenue forecasts.
2Insights into the company's strategy for improving profitability in the current market environment.
3Management's commentary on market conditions and how they plan to navigate challenges.
4Details on any new investment strategies or products that could drive future growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent earnings misses and plans for recovery.