Equity Profile

ARES

Ares Management Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$28.0B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Management Corporation is a leading global alternative investment manager focused on credit, private equity, and real estate. As part of the financial sector, Ares plays a crucial role in asset management, helping clients navigate investment opportunities and market fluctuations.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

$1.27

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory, which is critical for assessing its market position.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Ares reported an EPS of $0.46, significantly below the expected $1.32, leading to a stock increase of 1.36% the following day. This marked a continuation of disappointing earnings results from previous quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Ares' upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and stable revenue. However, the recent history of earnings misses raises concerns about the company's ability to meet expectations.

Bull Case

If Ares can exceed the EPS estimate of $1.27, it may signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Ares fails to meet the EPS target again, it could reinforce negative sentiment and lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the recent trend of earnings misses.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.27

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory, which is critical for assessing its market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ares achieve an EPS of at least $1.27 this quarter?

Given the company's recent struggles with meeting earnings expectations, this number will be critical in assessing its recovery.

What factors contributed to the revenue forecast of $1.1B?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help gauge the company's growth potential and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Ares to rebound, as recent earnings misses could be attributed to one-off factors rather than a systemic issue.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 17.63% move, suggesting that significant volatility is expected, which could indicate a potential surprise.

Ares has historically shown a tendency to rebound after earnings misses, with a 25% beat rate suggesting that positive surprises are possible.

Key Risk

If Ares reports an EPS significantly above $1.27, it could challenge the prevailing bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal for Ares, as they need to demonstrate improvement after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm a positive shift in Ares' earnings trajectory.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would reinforce concerns about ongoing performance issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.5%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

An inline result may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If Ares misses again, history indicates a likely drop of around 4%, which could further damage investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the factors impacting revenue growth this quarter.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Updates on market conditions affecting asset management performance.
4Details on client acquisition and retention strategies.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and market trends.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

$1.27

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory, which is critical for assessing its market position.

$1.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARES Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.22%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.17%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ares can exceed the EPS estimate of $1.27, it may signal a turnaround in performance and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Ares fails to meet the EPS target again, it could reinforce negative sentiment and lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the recent trend of earnings misses.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.27

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory, which is critical for assessing its market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ares achieve an EPS of at least $1.27 this quarter?

Given the company's recent struggles with meeting earnings expectations, this number will be critical in assessing its recovery.

What factors contributed to the revenue forecast of $1.1B?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help gauge the company's growth potential and market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Ares to rebound, as recent earnings misses could be attributed to one-off factors rather than a systemic issue.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 17.63% move, suggesting that significant volatility is expected, which could indicate a potential surprise.

Ares has historically shown a tendency to rebound after earnings misses, with a 25% beat rate suggesting that positive surprises are possible.

Key Risk

If Ares reports an EPS significantly above $1.27, it could challenge the prevailing bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal for Ares, as they need to demonstrate improvement after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm a positive shift in Ares' earnings trajectory.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.21 would reinforce concerns about ongoing performance issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.63%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±17.6% while ARES has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

34.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 2.48Puts (45K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.5%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

An inline result may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If Ares misses again, history indicates a likely drop of around 4%, which could further damage investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

Senate only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-ARJohn BoozmanSen.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the factors impacting revenue growth this quarter.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Updates on market conditions affecting asset management performance.
4Details on client acquisition and retention strategies.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and market trends.